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Mesoscale Discussion 1300
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1300
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0442 PM CDT MON JUL 07 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MA NEWD INTO SRN ME

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 072142Z - 072245Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED STRONG-SVR STORMS ARE PROGRESSING EWD ACROSS SRN
   NEW ENGLAND. ONE LONG-LIVED STORM DISPLAYING SUPERCELL
   CHARACTERISTICS WILL AFFECT NRN PORTIONS OF THE BOSTON METRO AREA
   THROUGH 23Z...AND WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR PRODUCING LOCALIZED
   STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE
   CONFINED/SHORT-LIVED NATURE OF THE THREAT.

   DISCUSSION...MOSAIC RADAR REFLECTIVITY SHOW A STORM DISPLAYING
   SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS OVER MIDDLESEX COUNTY AS OF
   2130Z...EXHIBITING THE POTENTIAL FOR PRODUCING LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS.
   VWP DATA FROM BOX SHOW VEERED/SWLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS VEERING TO WLY AT
   AROUND 2 KM AGL...YIELDING EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES OF 30-40 KT.
   OVERALL STORM INTENSITY MAY BE PARTIALLY LIMITED BY A MARGINAL
   THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...WITH MLCAPE VALUES ESTIMATED AT AROUND
   500-1000 J/KG. EXTRAPOLATION OF ESTIMATED STORM MOTION AROUND 30 KT
   SHOWS IT REACHING THE COAST AROUND 2230Z.

   ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED TO THE W/N...INCLUDING
   PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL MA AND SRN ME. A BRIEF THREAT FOR STRONG WIND
   GUSTS MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THESE TSTMS.

   ..ROGERS/HART.. 07/07/2014


   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...

   LAT...LON   43836957 43237037 42617059 42287089 42127150 42337206
               42607210 42947149 43717048 43957018 43966972 43836957 

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Page last modified: July 07, 2014
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