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Mesoscale Discussion 1300
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1300
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0646 PM CDT Wed Jul 12 2017

   Areas affected...Eastern Colorado and Western Kansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 122346Z - 130115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms across eastern Colorado will continue to
   move generally eastward toward portions of western Kansas through
   the afternoon and evening. Additional thunderstorms may also develop
   across southwest into central Kansas. The strongest thunderstorms
   will pose a large-hail and damaging-wind threat.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have developed and intensified across
   eastern Colorado within the upslope flow regime to the north of a
   surface cold front. Generally speaking, these thunderstorms are
   moving eastward into a more unstable environment, maximized across
   western, and especially northwestern, Kansas. The strong instability
   in place will support/maintain some intense thunderstorm updrafts
   and an attendant threat for isolated large hail and strong, gusty
   thunderstorm winds. 

   Additional thunderstorm development is expected over the next few
   hours across the area, particularly across southeast Colorado, where
   outflow boundaries from thunderstorm clusters to the southwest,
   west, and north all collide. The resulting increase in thunderstorm
   and stratiform precipitation coverage should act to lessen
   instability with time, and the severe threat should follow suit. The
   limited spatio-temporal nature of the threat should preclude the
   need for a watch.

   ..Marsh/Edwards.. 07/12/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

   LAT...LON   37090361 37750457 38760475 39900334 40110205 40060043
               38869947 38289969 37390102 37080210 37090361 

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Page last modified: July 13, 2017
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