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Mesoscale Discussion 1301
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1301
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0936 PM CDT Wed Jul 12 2017

   Areas affected...northeast Wisconsin and northwest lower Michigan

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 411...

   Valid 130236Z - 130400Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 411
   continues.

   SUMMARY...While a couple strong wind gusts and hail remain possible
   with storms moving through northeast WI next hour or two. Overall
   threat is expected to gradually diminish by WW expiration time of
   04Z.

   DISCUSSION...Storms moving through northeast WI are not particularly
   organized. The 00Z Green Bay sounding indicates around 1500 J/kg
   MLCAPE and 38 kt 0-6 km shear. However, weak mid-level lapse rates,
   and an inversion present around 850 mb suggest updrafts should
   gradually weaken as the boundary layer stabilizes and convective
   inhibition increases. Activity may continue across Lake MI and into
   the Lower Peninsula of MI. However, the increasingly marginal
   thermodynamic environment suggests most storms should remain below
   severe levels, and another WW is not anticipated.

   ..Dial.. 07/13/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...APX...GRR...MQT...GRB...MKX...

   LAT...LON   45188750 44458569 43868599 43878885 44598853 45178826
               45188750 

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Page last modified: July 13, 2017
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