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Mesoscale Discussion 1301
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1301
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0447 PM CDT MON JUL 07 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MN...WRN AND SRN WI...NE IA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 072147Z - 072315Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT
   HOUR OR TWO AS STORM CLUSTERS TRACK E/SE ACROSS SRN MN INTO SRN WI.
   TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WATCH ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON IN A WARM
   AND MOIST ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE
   NORTHERN PLAINS. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED WIDESPREAD STRONGER
   PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS SRN MN INTO NE IA/WRN WI AHEAD OF THE EWD
   PROPAGATING CONVECTION. ADDITIONALLY...STORMS TO THE NORTH OF LSE
   HAVE PRODUCED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING NWWD TO JUST WEST OF THE
   MSP METRO AREA WHERE ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STORMS WAS ONGOING. MODEST
   INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF
   30-40 KT SHOULD BE ADEQUATE TO MAINTAIN ONGOING STORMS AND RESULT IN
   SOME ORGANIZED...FORWARD PROPAGATING STORM CLUSTERS OR BOWING
   SEGMENTS. WHILE MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE...LOW LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN 7 DEG C PER KM AND DCAPE OVER 1000 J/KG
   VALUES WOULD SUPPORT LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE LINE OF STORMS
   JUST NORTH OF LSE ALREADY SHOWED SOME INDICATIONS OF STRONGER WIND
   GUST POTENTIAL WITH MAX RADAR VELOCITIES NEAR 50-55 KT ABOUT
   1500-2000 FT AGL. THE CLUSTER TO THE WEST OF MSP SHOULD BECOME
   BETTER ORGANIZED AND SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE AS IT MOVES INTO
   STRONGER PRESSURE FALLS WITH THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AIDING IN
   ORGANIZATION/UPSCALE GROWTH. 

   TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND
   ORGANIZATION AND A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

   ..LEITMAN/HART.. 07/07/2014


   ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...

   LAT...LON   44249538 44639554 45009519 45179461 45179388 44909232
               44289013 43718881 43458843 43218834 42898857 42768877
               42588925 42419001 42439057 42649149 43099296 43519458
               43909529 44249538 

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Page last modified: July 07, 2014
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