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Mesoscale Discussion 1302
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MD 1302 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 1302
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0219 AM CDT Thu Jul 13 2017

   Areas affected...Lower Michigan...far northeast Indiana into
   northwest and north-central Ohio

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 130719Z - 131015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Locally strong wind gusts and isolated hail will be
   possible across central and southern Lower Michigan, northeast
   Indiana, and portions of northern Ohio through the overnight to
   early morning.  The expected low coverage of strong to severe storms
   precludes the need for severe-thunderstorm watch.

   DISCUSSION...Water vapor imagery and trends in 700-mb and 500-mb
   winds indicate low-amplitude midlevel impulses were tracking
   eastward through northern WI and northern IL into northwest IN at
   07Z.  Attendant forcing for ascent with each of these impulses,
   though generally subtle, is expected to support additional
   thunderstorm development across much of Lower MI (except in the far
   north) and northern portions of IN and OH.  Despite an expected
   increase in moisture across the discussion area overnight
   (precipitable water increasing to 1.75-2.00 inches), weak low- and
   mid-level lapse rates and time of day should result in further
   weakening of residual instability.  This should also tend to limit
   the vigor of updrafts across Lower MI, northern IN to northern OH.

   A short bowing line of storms located in north-central Lower MI was
   tracking to the east-southeast at 45-50 kt, and may tend to pose the
   greatest severe weather threat overnight producing locally
   strong/damaging wind gusts.  This bow should maintain an
   east-southeast movement along an instability gradient which was
   located in vicinity of a warm front, which stretched from a surface
   low in northwest Lower MI to southeast Lower MI (near KMBS to
   approximately 25 SE KBAX).  Although instability is greater with
   southward extent, weaker effective bulk shear (25-30 kt) may tend to
   limit storm organization across southern Lower MI, northeast IN into
   northern OH.

   ..Peters/Guyer.. 07/13/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   44248484 44118355 43948259 42938223 42018198 41228179
               40748310 40928422 41208506 41718571 42028610 43518636

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