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Mesoscale Discussion 1302
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1302
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0206 AM CDT SUN JUL 05 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL INTO E-CNTRL MT / WRN ND

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 389...

   VALID 050706Z - 050800Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 389
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL
   WILL CONTINUE ACROSS N-CNTRL INTO E-CNTRL MT.  THE SEVERE STORM
   ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE INTO WRN ND AND MAY PROMPT A SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUANCE LATER TONIGHT.

   DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A PARADE OF 3 DISCRETE SEVERE STORMS
   MOVING E ACROSS N-CNTRL INTO NERN MT.  SURFACE ANALYSIS AND RADAR
   DATA INDICATE A COMPOSITE OUTFLOW/COLD FRONT IS LOCATED FROM THE
   FLANK OF THE LEAD STORM NEAR GGW WSWWD INTO CNTRL MT WITH THE
   UPSTREAM STORMS ELEVATED IN CHARACTER.  DOWNSTREAM OF THE ONGOING
   STORM ACTIVITY...UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS AND A MARGINALLY
   BUOYANT AIRMASS AMIDST ENELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A
   MOIST/UNSTABLE FEED INTO E-CNTRL MT PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE.  THE
   APPROACH OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SRN CANADIAN ROCKIES AND
   STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL LIKELY SUPPORT AN ISOLD/ORGANIZED SEVERE
   THREAT INTO THE OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. 
   LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION HAS THE CURRENT ACTIVITY MOVING INTO WRN ND
   PRIOR TO 10 UTC.  WILL MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS AS IT APPROACHES
   THE ND/MT BORDER WHETHER AN ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   WILL BE NEEDED LATER TONIGHT.

   ..SMITH.. 07/05/2015


   ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

   LAT...LON   46450337 47080701 47440901 47910924 48210685 47730309
               46450337 

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Page last modified: July 05, 2015
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