Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 1303
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 1303 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1303
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0601 PM CDT MON JUL 07 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL MO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 072301Z - 080000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT
   OF HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS INTO EARLY EVENING. A WATCH IS
   NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

   DISCUSSION...CUMULUS WERE BECOMING MORE AGITATED ACROSS E-CNTRL MO
   TO THE WEST OF EARLIER THUNDERSTORMS OVER W-CNTRL/SRN IL AND IN
   VICINITY OF A WEAK SFC LOW. LSX RADAR SHOWED AT LEAST ONE CELL
   TRYING TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE STL METRO AREA. SEVERE
   THREAT SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY CONFINED AS CIRRUS SHIELD ACROSS IL
   HAS LIMITED SFC RECOVERY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S
   NOTED AS OF 2230Z. TO THE WEST OVER E-CNTRL MO...WEAK CONVERGENCE
   ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC LOW COUPLED WITH STRONG INSTABILITY IN A
   WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS COULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
   THUNDERSTORMS OR A THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER. WHILE LAPSE RATES AND
   DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WOULD SUPPORT ROBUST UPDRAFTS WITH AN
   ATTENDANT WIND/HAIL THREAT...WEAKENING DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH
   SOUTHWARD EXTENT SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL ORGANIZATION. THE SEVERE
   THREAT SHOULD DECREASE WITH SWD AND EWD EXTENT OVER SE MO/SWRN IL
   GIVEN AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING. LATEST
   HRRR GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. GIVEN THE
   CONFINED/LIMITED NATURE OF THE THREAT...A WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED AT
   THIS TIME.

   ..LEITMAN/HART.. 07/07/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...

   LAT...LON   37509065 37479111 37839159 38389197 38879192 39139163
               39229111 39049045 38519009 38068995 37569039 37509065 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: July 08, 2014
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities