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Mesoscale Discussion 1303
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1303
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0954 AM CDT SUN JUL 05 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN ND...NWRN MN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 051454Z - 051630Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EASTWARD NEAR A COLD FRONT WILL POSE
   A RISK FOR DAMAGING GUSTS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.  A WATCH IS
   POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA IN THE NEXT ONE TO TWO HOURS.

   DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED IN
   THE VICINITY OF A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDED FROM FAR NORTHWEST MN
   SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL ND AT 1445Z. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
   OVER EASTERN ND APPEARS TO BE SLIGHTLY BEHIND OF THE FRONT...BUT
   WITH RECENT EASTWARD MOTION AVERAGING 40-45 KTS...THESE STORMS WILL
   LIKELY BECOME SURFACE BASED IN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS WHILE
   APPROACHING THE RED RIVER VALLEY. RECENT RADAR VELOCITY TRENDS FROM
   KMVX SAMPLE A STRENGTHENING REAR INFLOW JET DEVELOPING WITH THE LINE
   SEGMENT MOVING INTO EDDY/BENSON COUNTIES...AND AS THESE STORMS
   BECOME SURFACE-BASED AN INCREASING THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS IS
   LIKELY TO DEVELOP.

   THE DISCUSSION AREA LIES ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A BELT OF
   STRONGER WESTERLIES...WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE ACROSS
   NORTHWEST ND INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA. VERTICALLY VEERING WINDS HAVE
   RESULTED IN 30-35 KTS OF WESTERLY EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR...AND STRONG
   DIURNAL HEATING WILL CONTINUE IN THE DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT
   RESULTING IN MODERATE SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. 

   SHORT TERM RADAR/ENVIRONMENTAL TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
   MONITORED...AND A SMALL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED OVER
   EASTERN ND AND NORTHWESTERN MN IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

   ..BUNTING/MEAD.. 07/05/2015


   ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...BIS...

   LAT...LON   46999988 47559968 48029918 48319861 48619762 48669599
               48619489 48219412 47729393 46959420 46689486 46659805
               46809942 46999988 

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Page last modified: July 05, 2015
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