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Mesoscale Discussion 1304
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1304
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1159 AM CDT SUN JUL 05 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN FL PANHANDLE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 051659Z - 051830Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL EXIST ACROSS THE ERN
   FL PANHANDLE AS TSTMS CONTINUE EWD. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED GIVEN
   THE EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE OF THE THREAT.

   DISCUSSION...RECENT REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY HAS SHOWN AN INCREASE IN
   TSTM ACTIVITY AHEAD OF A CLUSTER OF TSTMS IN CALHOUN AND GULF
   COUNTIES IN THE CNTRL FL PANHANDLE. THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO HAVE
   DEVELOPED ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE TSTMS IN SE
   GA SWWD INTO THE CLUSTER IN CALHOUN AND GULF COUNTIES. LONG-LOOP
   RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THIS CLUSTER IS LOCATED AT THE INTERSECTION OF
   THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND ANOTHER OUTFLOW
   ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE WRN FL PANHANDLE
   EARLIER. THE CLUSTER HAS REMAINED AHEAD OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
   AND HAS RECENTLY EXHIBITED INCREASE FORWARD-PROPAGATION...WHICH WILL
   LIKELY PERSIST GIVEN THE RECENT DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF IT. THE
   COMBINATION OF THIS INCREASED FORWARD-PROPAGATION AND UPDRAFT
   ENHANCEMENTS DUE TO CELL MERGERS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AN
   ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE TSTMS
   CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE ERN FL PANHANDLE. ISOLATED NATURE OF THE
   THREAT PRECLUDES THE NEED FOR A WW.

   ..MOSIER/MEAD.. 07/05/2015


   ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...

   LAT...LON   29808339 29848358 29998392 30068435 29898454 29818472
               29828481 30028496 30238505 30468500 30768469 30888383
               30938377 30838321 30238309 29708318 29808339 

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Page last modified: July 05, 2015
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