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Mesoscale Discussion 1304
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1304
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0617 PM CDT MON JUL 07 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL KY...FAR SRN IND

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 072317Z - 080015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SMALL LINE SEGMENT ENTERING CNTRL KY HAS EXHIBITED THE
   POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO LOCALLY SVR WIND GUSTS. THIS THREAT MAY
   EXTEND INTO CNTRL KY THE NEXT 1-2 HRS...BUT DOES NOT APPEAR
   SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A WW. HOWEVER...TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
   MONITORED.

   DISCUSSION...A SMALL BOWING SEGMENT CROSSING THE OH RIVER WAS
   POSITIONED FROM PERRY COUNTY IND SWWD INTO OHIO COUNTY KY.
   CONVECTIVE TRENDS HAVE SHOWN A GENERAL WEAKENING OF CONVECTION ALONG
   THE LEADING OUTFLOW...BUT A MORE RECENT UPTICK HAS OCCURRED. THE
   POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO LOCALIZED SVR WIND GUSTS APPEARS LIKELY TO
   CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT HR...BUT MAY BECOME MORE LIMITED WITH
   EWD PROGRESSION INTO A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MASS...AND THE IMMINENT
   LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE THREAT WILL
   REMAIN TOO LIMITED/SHORT-LIVED TO REQUIRE A WW...BUT TRENDS WILL
   CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

   ..ROGERS/HART.. 07/07/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LMK...PAH...

   LAT...LON   37738515 37328548 37008599 36958650 36948695 37038734
               37378751 37718715 37938687 38178654 38218620 38198556
               37738515 

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Page last modified: July 08, 2014
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