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Mesoscale Discussion 1305
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1305
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1246 PM CDT SUN JUL 05 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...MOST OF LA...FAR SW MS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 051746Z - 051945Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TSTM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE
   AFTERNOON WITH A RESULTING INCREASE IN THE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL.
   A WW MAY BE NEEDED IF AN ORGANIZED SVR THREAT BEGINS TO DEVELOP.

   DISCUSSION...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE
   NEXT HOUR OR SO ACROSS CNTRL LA AS DAYTIME HEATING CONTINUES AND
   CONVERGENCE ALONG MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES INCREASES. REGIONAL RADAR
   IMAGERY SHOWS A CLUSTER OF TSTMS ACROSS BEAUREGARD PARISH IN SW LA
   MOVING NEWD WHILE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE TSTMS ACROSS CNTRL MS
   PUSHES SWWD. THIS OUTFLOW PLUS THE ANTICIPATED OUTFLOW FROM THE
   ACTIVITY IN SW LA WILL LIKELY PROVIDE THE IMPETUS FOR ADDITIONAL
   DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. 

   TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
   ARE CONTRIBUTING TO A STRONG INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION WITH
   RECENT MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATING MLCAPE GREATER THAN 3000 J PER KG.
   WHILE THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS GOOD...THE KINEMATIC
   ENVIRONMENT IS RATHER ANEMIC. LCH 12Z SOUNDING SAMPLED NO WINDS
   ABOVE 30 KT BELOW 300 MB /ROUGHLY 10 KM/. SOME STRONGER ANVIL LEVEL
   WINDS ARE NOTED BUT THIS SHOULD BE OF LITTLE BENEFIT TO STORM
   ORGANIZATION GIVEN THE LACK OF WINDS BELOW ANVIL LEVEL. 

   GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...THE
   ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION LOADING AND A RESULTING
   POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. CURRENTLY...CONFIDENCE REGARDING
   AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT IS LOW BUT TRENDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE
   MONITORED AND IF ORGANIZATION ALONG A COOL POOL BEGINS TO OCCUR...A
   WW MAY BE NEEDED.

   ..MOSIER/MEAD.. 07/05/2015


   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

   LAT...LON   29989242 31049349 31909396 32569375 32799286 32679229
               32169185 31619100 31509078 31209028 30489021 30029073
               29839154 29989242 

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Page last modified: July 05, 2015
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