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Mesoscale Discussion 1305
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1305
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0700 AM CDT SUN JUL 17 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF NRN IL INTO FAR SERN WI

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 171200Z - 171400Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
   MUCH OF NRN IL THIS MORNING...WITH WIDESPREAD WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
   THE PASSAGE OF THE GUST FRONT.

   DISCUSSION...A LONG-LIVED MCS IS NOW CROSSING THE MS RIVER AND
   EXTENDS FROM FAR SRN WI INTO NWRN IL. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS HAVE
   CONSISTENTLY MEASURED PEAK WIND GUSTS ON THE ORDER OF 40-45 KT AS IT
   TRAVELED ACROSS IA...BUT A FEW STRONGER GUSTS ON A VERY LOCALIZED
   SCALE HAVE ALSO OCCURRED WITH SMALL CHANNELS OF 60+ KT BASE VELOCITY
   NOTED ON RADAR.

   SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALSO SHOW COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LESS MOISTURE
   DOWNSTREAM OF THIS SYSTEM WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME WEAKENING DUE TO
   WEAKER INSTABILITY...BUT THIS SYSTEM HAS A PERSISTENT PRESSURE
   RISE/FALL COUPLET INDICATIVE OF ORGANIZATION...THUS STRONG 30-40+ KT
   WIND GUSTS MAY EVENTUALLY REACH THE CHICAGO AREA LATER THIS MORNING.

   ..JEWELL/EDWARDS.. 07/17/2016


   ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...

   LAT...LON   40738880 40699020 40729140 40929174 41189138 41409070
               41929021 42159004 42528983 42728945 42988863 43048803
               42898778 42438763 42038750 41748742 41178798 40738880 

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Page last modified: July 17, 2016
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