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Mesoscale Discussion 1306
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1306
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0119 PM CDT SUN JUL 05 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN ND...NRN/WRN MN...NERN SD

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 390...

   VALID 051819Z - 051945Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 390
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT EXISTS ACROSS PRIMARILY
   THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA. AN ADDITIONAL WATCH IS
   LIKELY WITH TIME FARTHER SOUTH/EAST AS ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG AN EASTWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW A WEAKENING MCS ACROSS NWRN
   MN...WITH OVERALL DIMINISHED LEADING EDGE REFLECTIVITY AND NO RECENT
   REPORTS.  DESPITE THESE TRENDS...AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
   ISOLATED STRONG WINDS WITH ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS THAT CAN BECOME
   REESTABLISHED OVER BELTRAMI AND CLEARWATER COUNTIES IN THE NEXT HOUR
   OR TWO. 

   LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COMPOSITE EASTWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT
   EXTENDING FROM NORTHWEST MN INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST SD.  STRONG
   INSOLATION CONTINUES WITHIN THE MOIST DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT AND
   MODERATE/STRONG SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY WILL LIKELY BE IN PLACE BY
   MID/LATE AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH WITH CONTINUED REDUCTION IN
   REMAINING CINH. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BY
   LATE AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT...AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AVERAGING
   30-35 KTS WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES INITIALLY WITH A RISK
   FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING GUSTS AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO. 
   LINEAR/FRONTAL FORCING SHOULD EVENTUALLY RESULT IN A LINE OF STORMS
   WITH TIME AND A CONTINUED RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND AN ISOLATED
   QLCS TORNADO. GIVEN THIS EXPECTED EVOLUTION...AN ADDITIONAL WATCH IS
   LIKELY BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON.

   ..BUNTING.. 07/05/2015


   ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...

   LAT...LON   47159823 47809674 48519601 48459426 47949319 46349358
               45449444 44979539 44699618 44589763 44929829 46629834
               47159823 

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Page last modified: July 05, 2015
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