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Mesoscale Discussion 1307
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1307
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0346 PM CDT SUN JUL 05 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SRN SD...PORTIONS OF NRN NEB...NWRN
   IA...SWRN MN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 052046Z - 052245Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
   21Z-00Z TIME FRAME WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY AND A
   TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE. THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED AND A WATCH IS
   LIKELY PRIOR TO 23Z.

   DISCUSSION...RECENT VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEVELOPING CU FIELD
   ACROSS SOUTHERN SD...NEAR AND SLIGHTLY IN ADVANCE OF A COMPOSITE
   FRONTAL/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. STRONG DIURNAL HEATING HAS RESULTED IN
   MODERATE/LOCALLY VERY STRONG SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE
   RANGING FROM 1500 J/KG OVER FAR SOUTHWEST SD TO NEAR 4000 J/KG OVER
   SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST SD...AND LITTLE/NO REMAINING CINH.
   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AVERAGES 30-40 KTS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA AS
   THE REGION IS ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW. A
   WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE OVER WESTERN CO/WY WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH
   THIS EVENING AND PROVIDE MODEST LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT.

   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS PROBABLE IN THE 21Z-00Z TIME FRAME
   ALONG THE FRONT...AND PERHAPS IN THE VICINITY OF THE BLACK HILLS
   WITH PERSISTENT MOIST LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW. STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY
   BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY. A TORNADO
   OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SURFACE BOUNDARY GIVEN
   THE MAGNITUDE OF THE INSTABILITY. UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A
   FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS IS LIKELY TOWARDS EVENING WITH A CONTINUED
   DAMAGING WIND/QLCS TORNADO RISK.

   RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AND A WATCH IS
   LIKELY PRIOR TO 23Z.

   ..BUNTING/MEAD.. 07/05/2015


   ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS...

   LAT...LON   44630321 44810209 44410108 44320034 44339975 44599883
               44979702 44629617 44039562 42869575 42519676 42269852
               42009987 42000064 42780375 43460385 44630321 

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Page last modified: July 05, 2015
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