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Mesoscale Discussion 1307
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1307
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0809 PM CDT MON JUL 07 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 080109Z - 080215Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO LOCALLY SVR WINDS AND LARGE
   HAIL MAY EXTEND SWD FROM ONGOING CONVECTION INTO PARTS OF CNTRL KS.
   ALTHOUGH A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO
   BE MONITORED.

   DISCUSSION...CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED INTO A SEMI-CONTINUOUS LINE
   FROM W-CNTRL INTO N-CNTRL KS ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL SFC TROUGH/WIND
   SHIFT. RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST OUTFLOW HAS ADVANCED WELL AHEAD OF MOST
   OF THIS LINE...WITH STRONGER CORES BEING MAINTAINED ACROSS RUSH AND
   RUSSEL COUNTIES KS. MEANWHILE...VERY STRONG HEATING HAS OCCURRED
   ACROSS THE REGION...WITH TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE MID-90S F AS OF
   01Z...YIELDING STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A VERY DEEPLY-MIXED
   BOUNDARY LAYER. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AROUND 25 KT IS SUPPORTIVE FOR
   MULTICELL STRUCTURES AND LONGER-LIVED STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
   CNTRL KS. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT NEW DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE
   TO OCCUR ALONG THE ERN FLANK INTO N-CNTRL AND NERN KS THROUGH THE
   LATE EVENING...EVENTUALLY CONGEALING INTO A MCS. WHILE THE MORE
   FAVORABLE AIR MASS SUGGESTS GREATER SVR THREAT WILL REMAIN OVER
   THOSE AREAS...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO LOCALLY SVR WIND GUSTS MAY
   STILL EXIST INTO PARTS OF CNTRL/S-CNTRL KS.

   ..ROGERS/HART.. 07/08/2014


   ATTN...WFO...ICT...DDC...

   LAT...LON   37679768 37529844 37579961 37960023 38160049 38490010
               39009928 39109885 39079823 38799777 38619746 38289715
               38009730 37679768 

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Page last modified: July 08, 2014
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