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Mesoscale Discussion 1308
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MD 1308 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1308
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0934 PM CDT MON JUL 07 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN AND N-CNTRL CO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 080234Z - 080330Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...CONVECTIVE TRENDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS NERN AND
   N-CNTRL CO...WITH TSTMS EXHIBITING THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND
   STRONG-SVR WIND GUSTS. THIS THREAT MAY PERSIST INTO THE LATE
   EVENING...AND WHILE A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED...TRENDS WILL BE
   MONITORED.

   DISCUSSION...TSTMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY AS A
   COLD FRONT PROGRESSING FROM THE NW INTERACTS WITH SEVERAL OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARIES. RECENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THESE TSTMS HAVE THE
   POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED STRONG-SVR WIND GUSTS.
   THE AIR MASS IS MORE UNSTABLE IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AMIDST
   RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE /E.G. UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S F
   DEWPOINTS/...WHICH IS CONTINUING TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT. THIS AREA IS POSITIONED ALONG THE SRN FRINGE OF STRONG
   W-NWLY MIDLEVEL FLOW...WITH STORMS OVER LARIMER/BOULDER COUNTIES
   APPEARING MORE ORGANIZED THAN CONVECTION FARTHER S. DESPITE THE LOSS
   OF DIURNAL HEATING AND GRADUAL BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION...THE
   AIR MASS IS LIKELY TO REMAIN AT LEAST WEAKLY UNSTABLE INTO THE LATE
   EVENING...WITH MUCAPE VALUES FORECAST TO REMAIN AOA 500-1000 J/KG.
   CONVECTION SHOULD PERSIST FOR ANOTHER 1-2 HRS INVOF AREAS OF
   ENHANCED MESOSCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT...WITH PROPAGATION OF TSTMS
   AFFECTED BY ORIENTATION/INTERACTION OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.

   ..ROGERS/HART.. 07/08/2014


   ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...

   LAT...LON   38980263 38970365 39460501 40000569 40590577 40830558
               40810528 40600485 40260430 39960356 39750298 39380256
               38980263 

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Page last modified: July 08, 2014
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