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Mesoscale Discussion 1308
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1308
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0303 PM CDT SUN JUL 17 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEASTERN COLORADO...FAR NORTHWESTERN
   KANSAS...FAR WESTERN NEBRASKA...AND SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 172003Z - 172100Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS UNDERWAY ACROSS
   SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING...AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING.  A WW
   FOR THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE/RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE ISOLATED
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
   SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING...WITH AREAS OF TOWERING CU ALSO NOTED FARTHER
   SOUTH INTO CENTRAL COLORADO.  WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WAS IN
   PLACE NEAR THIS CONVECTION...WITH A GRADUALLY MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS
   IN PLACE WITH EASTWARD EXTENT DUE TO HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
   CONTENT /I.E. LOW TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS IN NORTHEASTERN COLORADO/. 
   DEEP SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR STORM ORGANIZATION...AND
   TURNING/VEERING OF WIND WITH HEIGHT SUGGESTS THAT UPDRAFT ROTATION
   MAY OCCUR IN THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW
   AND HIGH CLOUD BASES WILL KEEP ANY TORNADO THREAT RELATIVELY
   ISOLATED.  STORM COVERAGE MAY ALSO STAY ISOLATED...PRIMARILY DUE TO
   PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT RISES AND WEAK MID-LEVEL
   CAPPING IN THE REGION.  ANY STORM THAT PERSISTS WILL HAVE THE
   POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY AS
   STORMS MOVE/PROPAGATE TOWARD STRONGER INSTABILITY LATER THIS
   AFTERNOON.  THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THIS THREAT SUGGESTS THAT A WW
   WILL LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED...ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE
   TO BE MONITORED.

   ..COOK/HART.. 07/17/2016


   ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   38940162 38730196 38670253 38720307 38860380 39100451
               39470499 40060549 40800605 41420629 41830630 42160613
               42300547 42250456 42130370 41740270 41500226 41310210
               40170157 39220145 38940162 

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Page last modified: July 17, 2016
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