Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 1308
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 1308 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1308
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0502 PM CDT SUN JUL 05 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NERN MN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 052202Z - 060000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE SEVERE RISK MAY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
   ACROSS NERN MN...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN
   THREATS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE. WW ISSUANCE IS
   POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS DEPENDING ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

   DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NERN MN
   THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER NRN ST. LOUIS COUNTY MN. A SFC COLD
   FRONT IS LOCATED TO THE W OF THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS ERN ND/WRN
   MN...MOVING ESEWD WITH TIME. WHILE THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
   IS NOT PARTICULARLY ROBUST AS OF 22Z...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR IT TO
   STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS IT ENCOUNTERS A FAVORABLE
   THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT OVER PORTIONS OF THE MN ARROWHEAD.

   ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SEEMS PROBABLE ALONG/JUST AHEAD
   OF THE COLD FRONT OVER N-CNTRL MN...MOVING EWD WITH TIME. MOST
   SHORT-TERM CONVECTION ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS
   SCENARIO WILL OCCUR THROUGH 00Z...WITH INITIAL DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT
   GROWING UPSCALE INTO A QLCS GIVEN THE LINEAR NATURE OF THE LOW-LEVEL
   FORCING. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN
   THE LOWER TO MID 60S ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG
   ACROSS MUCH OF NERN MN. ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES SHOULD ALSO
   PROVIDE SUFFICIENT BULK SHEAR OF 35-45 KT TO ORGANIZE THUNDERSTORMS.
   LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS...WITH THE
   POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE
   QUESTION GIVEN 0-1KM SRH AROUND 140 M2/S2 PER THE KDLH RADAR AT 22Z.
   IF CONVECTION INCREASES IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT
   SEVERAL HOURS...THEN A WW MAY BE NEEDED.

   ..GLEASON/THOMPSON.. 07/05/2015


   ATTN...WFO...DLH...

   LAT...LON   46719460 47469433 48059395 48609343 48679288 48439206
               48249170 48169138 48329085 48179063 48169011 48008943
               47779000 47289112 46779195 46609222 46309365 46719460 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: July 06, 2015
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities