|Mesoscale Discussion 1309|
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Mesoscale Discussion 1309
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0839 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2017
Areas affected...Southeast AZ
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 140139Z - 140315Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Locally severe wind gusts will remain possible into the
early evening as convection moves in from the northeast.
DISCUSSION...Ongoing convection across southeast AZ has become
somewhat more concentrated just east of the I-10/I-19 corridors
across southeast AZ. Moderate buoyancy (noted on 00Z TUS sounding)
will continue to support active convection along and behind the
leading gust front through the evening. Northeasterly flow of 20-30
kt in the 2-4 km layer (noted in recent VAD wind profiles from KEMX)
will support a continued southwesterly propagation with time this
evening as cold pools continue to conglomerate. Along and
immediately behind the gust front, strong to locally severe gusts
will be possible, such as the 55 kt gust that was recently observed
at KDUG. Some uncertainty exists regarding the threat near the
international border closer to Nogales, where the airmass has been
modified by earlier storms over Mexico.
Overall, the coverage and magnitude of the threat is expected to
remain too low for watch issuance.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 31311108 31841123 32551114 32921097 32921052 32241044
31901035 31551037 31331039 31311108
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