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Mesoscale Discussion 1309
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MD 1309 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 1309
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0839 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2017

   Areas affected...Southeast AZ

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 140139Z - 140315Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Locally severe wind gusts will remain possible into the
   early evening as convection moves in from the northeast.

   DISCUSSION...Ongoing convection across southeast AZ has become
   somewhat more concentrated just east of the I-10/I-19 corridors
   across southeast AZ. Moderate buoyancy (noted on 00Z TUS sounding)
   will continue to support active convection along and behind the
   leading gust front through the evening. Northeasterly flow of 20-30
   kt in the 2-4 km layer (noted in recent VAD wind profiles from KEMX)
   will support a continued southwesterly propagation with time this
   evening as cold pools continue to conglomerate. Along and
   immediately behind the gust front, strong to locally severe gusts
   will be possible, such as the 55 kt gust that was recently observed
   at KDUG. Some uncertainty exists regarding the threat near the
   international border closer to Nogales, where the airmass has been
   modified by earlier storms over Mexico. 

   Overall, the coverage and magnitude of the threat is expected to
   remain too low for watch issuance.

   ..Dean/Edwards.. 07/14/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TWC...

   LAT...LON   31311108 31841123 32551114 32921097 32921052 32241044
               31901035 31551037 31331039 31311108 

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