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Mesoscale Discussion 1309
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1309
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0953 PM CDT MON JUL 07 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SE KS...SW AND CNTRL MO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 080253Z - 080430Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THREAT WILL CONTINUE SOUTH AND EAST
   ACROSS SE KS INTO SW/CENTRAL MO. A NEW WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
   IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO TO THE SOUTH OF WATCH 399 AND 400.

   DISCUSSION...THE QLCS DEVELOPING/INTENSIFYING OVER NW MO/NE KS WILL
   CONTINUE TO TRACK SEWD THIS EVENING. CURRENT STORM MOTION WOULD
   BRING THE LINE TO THE EDGE OF WATCHES 399 AND 400 BY AROUND 05Z. THE
   DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SUPPORTING A DAMAGING
   WIND THREAT WITH STRONG INSTABILITY AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
   AROUND 30-40 KT OVER SW MO/SE KS. SHEAR DOES DECREASE WITH SOUTHWARD
   EXTENT SO THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO HOW FAR SOUTH
   THE THREAT MAY PERSIST...BUT THE INCREASING SWLY LLJ INTO THIS
   REGION COUPLED WITH THE VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW
   FOR SEVERE THREAT TO PERSIST PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE MO/AR
   BORDER LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND MATCHES WELL WITH
   LATEST HRRR FORECAST. A NEW WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT
   HOUR OR TWO.

   ..LEITMAN/HART.. 07/08/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...

   LAT...LON   38429191 38199152 37799120 37189129 36809186 36699255
               36719384 36889457 37129554 37279595 37599638 38059655
               38499648 38709577 38679507 38629292 38429191 

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Page last modified: July 08, 2014
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