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Mesoscale Discussion 1309
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1309
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0724 PM CDT SUN JUL 05 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD INTO WRN MN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 060024Z - 060230Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS
   EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED.

   DISCUSSION...STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT
   ACROSS NERN SD AND INTO WRN MN. A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS
   IS IN PLACE ALTHOUGH WINDS ALOFT ARE A BIT WEAK. HOWEVER...A SLY
   LOW-LEVEL JET WILL ENHANCE STORM RELATIVE INFLOW SUPPORTING
   FORWARD-PROPAGATION IN A SEWD DIRECTION. LINEAR FORCING SHOULD FAVOR
   UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A LINEAR MCS WITH MAINLY A WIND THREAT BUT ALSO
   HAIL IN THE STRONGEST CORES.

   ..JEWELL/THOMPSON.. 07/06/2015


   ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...OAX...ABR...

   LAT...LON   46119564 46219477 45929423 45409396 44869406 44019481
               43079593 42719803 42769817 44719805 44949795 45149748
               45519664 46119564 

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Page last modified: July 06, 2015
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