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Mesoscale Discussion 1310
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1310
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0845 PM CDT SUN JUL 05 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN/N-CNTRL NEB AND S-CNTRL SD

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 391...

   VALID 060145Z - 060315Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 391
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...A MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT CONTINUES
   ACROSS WW 391. THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN IN THE SHORT-TERM WILL BE
   ACROSS S-CNTRL SD INTO N-CNTRL NEB...WHERE DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD
   BECOME THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

   DISCUSSION...SFC OBSERVATIONS AS OF 01Z INDICATE A SWD MOVING COLD
   FRONT CURRENTLY BISECTS WW 391 FROM SW TO NE...WITH POST-FRONTAL
   CONVECTION PRIMARILY CONFINED TO THE WRN NEB PANHANDLE. THIS
   ACTIVITY SHOULD POSE A MARGINAL LARGE HAIL RISK FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
   HOURS AS IT MOVES ENEWD. FURTHER E ACROSS S-CNTRL SD...INITIAL
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT HAS GROWN UPSCALE INTO
   A BOWING CLUSTER MOVING ESEWD INTO AN STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
   CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE OF 3000-4000 J/KG. COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT
   BULK SHEAR TO MAINTAIN ORGANIZATION AND THE LINEAR FORCING OF THE
   SWD MOVING COLD FRONT...THIS BOWING CLUSTER SHOULD CONTINUE TO
   MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY AS IT MOVES FURTHER EWD INTO S-CNTRL
   SD/N-CNTRL NEB AND POSSIBLY GROWS FURTHER UPSCALE INTO A MCS LATER
   THIS EVENING. AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
   BOWING CLUSTER GIVEN ELY SFC WINDS VEERING TO SWLY AT 2 KM...AND
   EFFECTIVE SRH ESTIMATED AROUND 100-150 M2/S2 PER RAP MESOANALYSIS
   DOWNSTREAM OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION.

   ..GLEASON.. 07/06/2015


   ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS...

   LAT...LON   41000339 42990351 43600300 43980201 44629870 44639786
               43849784 42089830 41010263 41000339 

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Page last modified: July 06, 2015
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