Skip Navigation Links 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 1311
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 1311 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 1311
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0303 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2017

   Areas affected...Much of North Dakota

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 142003Z - 142100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts are possible
   this afternoon with convection evolving across northern North
   Dakota.  A WW issuance appears unlikely at this time, although
   convective trends will be monitored.

   DISCUSSION...Recent satellite/radar imagery indicate a deepening
   cumulus field over northern North Dakota along with a few downdraft
   cores forming near and just west of a surface trough located about
   30 mi west of Minot.  Moderate instability has developed across the
   region in response to steep low/mid tropospheric lapse rates and 50s
   to near 60F dewpoints.  Continued surface heating, in conjunction
   with subtle lift associated with low-amplitude shortwave troughs
   migrating across Saskatchewan and Manitoba, will continue to foster
   an increase in convection over time, although recent
   convection-allowing model guidance suggests storms should be
   relatively isolated.  Low-level and deep shear profiles favor
   organization and perhaps some updraft rotation, although large hail
   and damaging wind gusts should remain the primary threats with this
   activity given high-cloud bases and 30-35F surface dewpoint

   A WW issuance is not anticipated for this activity as the severe
   risk is expected to be relatively isolated through the afternoon.

   ..Cook.. 07/14/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   46030250 46830375 47950386 48770345 49060158 49089871
               49009800 48329761 47299797 46519969 46060144 46030250 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
Page last modified: July 14, 2017
Information Quality
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities