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Mesoscale Discussion 1311
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1311
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0946 PM CDT SUN JUL 17 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST IA...NORTHERN/CENTRAL IL...NORTHWEST IND

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 393...

   VALID 180246Z - 180415Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 393
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...A SEVERE RISK SHOULD DEVELOP WEST OF WW 393 WITHIN A
   NEARLY WEST/EAST-ORIENTED AREA OF STORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST IA
   SPREADING INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL IL. MONITORING FOR AN
   ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF WEAK LOW-LEVEL
   WAA...CONVECTION HAS GRADUALLY DEEPENED FROM KEOKUK TO DES MOINES
   COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST IA. THIS ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE EAST-SOUTHEAST
   ACROSS PARTS OF WEST-CENTRAL IL INTO THE OVERNIGHT...TO THE WEST OF
   AN ONGOING SEVERE CLUSTER ACROSS NORTHEAST IL. A FAVORABLE
   COMBINATION OF BUOYANCY AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR PER 00Z DVN RAOB MAY
   SUPPORT A SUPERCELL OR TWO EMANATING OUT OF THIS CONVECTIVE
   ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY AS IT CROSSES THE MS RIVER WHERE LOW-LEVEL
   SOUTHWESTERLIES ARE STRONGER. SEVERE WIND/HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY
   THREATS...BUT A TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN THE RICHLY MOIST AIR
   MASS CHARACTERIZED BY MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS.
   ACTIVITY MAY ULTIMATELY MERGE INTO A BROADER MCS FROM NORTHWEST IND
   WESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL IL.

   ..GRAMS/WEISS.. 07/18/2016


   ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...DVN...

   LAT...LON   41708687 41268650 40758652 40308794 40158994 40349140
               40829198 41299199 41389159 41379065 41478943 41708687 

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Page last modified: July 18, 2016
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