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Mesoscale Discussion 1311
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1311
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1133 PM CDT MON JUL 07 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL MO INTO W-CNTRL IL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 401...402...

   VALID 080433Z - 080600Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   401...402...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO E-CENTRAL MO AND
   W-CENTRAL IL. A LOCAL EXTENSION OF SEVERE WATCH 401 MAY BE NEEDED
   ACROSS PARTS OF IL IF TRENDS PERSIST.

   DISCUSSION...THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS SEVERE WATCH
   401. ONE BOWING SEGMENT TRACKING MORE E/SE NEAR THE MS RIVER WILL
   CROSS INTO W-CNTRL IL SOON. THE VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE DOWNSTREAM
   AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STRONG/SEVERE STORMS IN THE
   VICINITY OF THE RIVER. INSTABILITY DOES DIMINISH WITH EASTWARD
   EXTENT INTO CENTRAL IL...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE THREAT MAY
   EXTEND A FEW COUNTIES TO THE EAST OF CURRENT WATCH 401. IF TRENDS
   CONTINUE AND INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED...A LOCAL AERIAL EXTENSION MAY
   BE NEEDED...AS CURRENT STORM MOTION BRINGS THE BOW ECHO TO THE EDGE
   OF THE WATCH BOX AROUND 06Z. 

   FARTHER SW...ANOTHER BOWING SEGMENT WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SEWD
   ACROSS CENTRAL MO INTO E-CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL MO...INTO SEVERE WATCH
   402. WFO LSX HAS ALREADY ADDED THE REMAINDER OF THEIR MISSOURI
   COUNTIES TO WATCH 401. INTENSE WINDS...SOME POSSIBLE GREATER THAN 65
   KT...WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE APEX OF THE BOWING SEGMENT FOR AT
   LEAST ANOTHER 1-2 MORE HOURS. EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
   DECREASE WITH SOUTH/EASTWARD EXTENT SO A WEAKENING TREND MAY OCCUR
   AFTER A FEW HOURS.

   ..LEITMAN.. 07/08/2014


   ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...

   LAT...LON   40199166 40369031 40048947 39418933 38308970 37789036
               37759110 38499256 39169253 40199166 

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Page last modified: July 08, 2014
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