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Mesoscale Discussion 1311
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1311
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0934 PM CDT SUN JUL 05 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NERN MN AND FAR NWRN WI

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 392...

   VALID 060234Z - 060400Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 392
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE SEVERE RISK ACROSS WW 392 HAS TRANSITIONED TO MAINLY
   STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. BEYOND 04Z...THE
   SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AS STORMS MOVE ACROSS FAR NWRN WI.

   DISCUSSION...AS EXPECTED...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NERN MN IS
   MOVING SEWD AROUND 40 KT ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THIS
   EVENING. GIVEN THE LINEAR NATURE OF THE CONVECTION...THE MAIN SEVERE
   THREAT IS NOW DAMAGING WINDS...WITH THE KDLH RADAR INDICATING
   LOW-LEVEL WINDS AROUND 50 KT APPROACHING THE DULUTH MN AREA OVER THE
   NEXT HOUR OR SO. WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...TEMPERATURES
   DOWNSTREAM OF ONGOING CONVECTION HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 70S...AND
   MLCAPE QUICKLY DECREASES WITH EWD EXTENT INTO FAR NWRN WI.
   THEREFORE...THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AROUND/SHORTLY
   AFTER 04Z AS IT ENCOUNTERS A MORE MARGINAL/UNFAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
   ENVIRONMENT.

   ..GLEASON.. 07/06/2015


   ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...

   LAT...LON   46119273 46159341 46159437 46389468 46539470 46679469
               46789463 47159434 47379379 47789289 47979243 48149204
               48199179 47549178 46939178 46169223 46029234 46119273 

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Page last modified: July 06, 2015
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