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Mesoscale Discussion 1311
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1311
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0303 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2017

   Areas affected...Much of North Dakota

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 142003Z - 142100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts are possible
   this afternoon with convection evolving across northern North
   Dakota.  A WW issuance appears unlikely at this time, although
   convective trends will be monitored.

   DISCUSSION...Recent satellite/radar imagery indicate a deepening
   cumulus field over northern North Dakota along with a few downdraft
   cores forming near and just west of a surface trough located about
   30 mi west of Minot.  Moderate instability has developed across the
   region in response to steep low/mid tropospheric lapse rates and 50s
   to near 60F dewpoints.  Continued surface heating, in conjunction
   with subtle lift associated with low-amplitude shortwave troughs
   migrating across Saskatchewan and Manitoba, will continue to foster
   an increase in convection over time, although recent
   convection-allowing model guidance suggests storms should be
   relatively isolated.  Low-level and deep shear profiles favor
   organization and perhaps some updraft rotation, although large hail
   and damaging wind gusts should remain the primary threats with this
   activity given high-cloud bases and 30-35F surface dewpoint
   depressions.

   A WW issuance is not anticipated for this activity as the severe
   risk is expected to be relatively isolated through the afternoon.

   ..Cook.. 07/14/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

   LAT...LON   46030250 46830375 47950386 48770345 49060158 49089871
               49009800 48329761 47299797 46519969 46060144 46030250 

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Page last modified: July 14, 2017
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