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Mesoscale Discussion 1312
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1312
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1249 AM CDT TUE JUL 08 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IL AND FAR SOUTHEAST MO TO
   SOUTHWEST INDIANA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 401...

   VALID 080549Z - 080715Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 401
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...AT LEAST AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND RISK IS EXPECTED TO
   CONTINUE INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IL AND FAR SOUTHEAST MO OVERNIGHT.
   LOCAL WFO EXTENSIONS HAVE BEEN COORDINATED TO WATCH 401 IN THE
   SHORT-TERM...BUT AN ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS POSSIBLE
   /40 PERCENT/ ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MO AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IL AND FAR
   SOUTHWEST INDIANA IF STRONG MCS TRENDS PERSIST.

   DISCUSSION...A WELL-ORGANIZED ASYMMETRIC SQUALL LINE WITH LEADING
   EDGE BOW ECHO AND 50 KT FORWARD MOTION SEEMS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
   GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL IL/FAR SOUTHERN MO
   OVERNIGHT. WHILE A DIMINISHING INTENSITY TREND WILL EVENTUALLY OCCUR
   VIA A STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER...THE WELL-ORGANIZED/FAST-MOVING
   NATURE OF THE SQUALL LINE/ASSOCIATED COLD POOL SHOULD CONTINUE AT
   LEAST AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND RISK OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
   SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS OF 2-3 MB/2-HR ARE MAXIMIZED ACROSS MUCH OF
   IL AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE...WHILE A TRAILING COLD POOL/MESO-HIGH
   IS READILY EVIDENT ACROSS CENTRAL MO. LATEST WSR-88D VWP DATA FROM
   KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL SAMPLES A 50+ KT REAR-INFLOW JET BETWEEN
   1-4 KM AGL.

   ..GUYER/MEAD.. 07/08/2014


   ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...

   LAT...LON   38699137 40028999 39858894 38928756 37568840 36979071
               38699137 

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Page last modified: July 08, 2014
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