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Mesoscale Discussion 1313
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1313
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1140 PM CDT SUN JUL 17 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST IA...SOUTHEAST NEB...NORTHWEST MO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 180440Z - 180615Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND POSSIBLY STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY
   DEVELOP WITH ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MO
   VALLEY.

   DISCUSSION...STORMS HAVE GRADUALLY INCREASED IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY
   ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NEB AND SOUTHWEST IA. THIS DEVELOPMENT
   APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO LOW-LEVEL WAA DOWNSTREAM OF A
   STRENGTHENING CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS LLJ. WHILE THIS LATTER FEATURE
   SHOULD DIMINISH BETWEEN 09-12Z...A CLUSTER OF CONVECTION WILL
   PROBABLY PERSIST ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MO VALLEY FOR THE NEXT
   SEVERAL HOURS. OAX VWP DATA SAMPLED A PRONOUNCED WEAKNESS IN THE
   HODOGRAPH FROM 2-4 KM AGL. HOWEVER...MODERATE SPEED SHEAR ABOVE THIS
   LAYER IN CONJUNCTION WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EVIDENT IN
   AREA 00Z RAOBS SHOULD SUPPORT A RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL IN THE
   MOST ROBUST UPDRAFTS. PREDOMINANT CLUSTER MODE ALONG WITH WEAK
   MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES SHOULD TEND TO MARGINALIZE THE OVERALL RISK.

   ..GRAMS/WEISS.. 07/18/2016


   ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...

   LAT...LON   41649631 41849579 41659474 41229391 40709364 40179376
               39929428 39929490 40069559 40329622 40989662 41649631 

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Page last modified: July 18, 2016
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