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Mesoscale Discussion 1313
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1313
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0758 AM CDT TUE JUL 08 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN OH/FAR WESTERN PA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 081258Z - 081400Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING
   ACROSS NORTHERN OH INTO FAR WESTERN PA. A WATCH DOES NOT APPEAR
   LIKELY IN THE SHORT-TERM GIVEN THE INITIAL MARGINALITY OF THE
   SCENARIO...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED
   THROUGH THE MORNING.

   DISCUSSION...AHEAD OF AN MCV ACROSS INDIANA...A LINE OF CONVECTION
   FOCUSED ALONG OUTFLOW /REMNANTS OF AN OVERNIGHT SQUALL LINE/
   CONTINUES TO STEADILY PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
   NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL OH AS OF 13Z. THE PRECEDING BOUNDARY LAYER
   IS SEMI-STABLE AT MID-MORNING WITH PRECEDING CLOUD COVER READILY
   EVIDENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS OH INTO PA.
   NONETHELESS...THE FORWARD PROGRESSION OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE/COLD
   POOL COULD ACCOUNT FOR LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS THIS MORNING.
   BEHIND THESE STORMS...WSR-88D VWP DATA FROM INDIANAPOLIS/WILMINGTON
   INDICATE AS MUCH 50 KT WESTERLY WINDS WITHIN THE LOWEST 2-4 KM. THE
   OVERALL SEVERE THREAT...INCLUDING A MORE PREVALENT DAMAGING WIND
   POTENTIAL...COULD INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE
   MORNING/AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS AND DESTABILIZES.

   ..GUYER/MEAD.. 07/08/2014


   ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...ILN...

   LAT...LON   41158382 41558319 41838035 41168021 40148283 41158382 

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Page last modified: July 08, 2014
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