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Mesoscale Discussion 1314
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1314
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1251 AM CDT MON JUL 18 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LOWER MI...NRN INDIANA...NWRN OH

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 180551Z - 180745Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...AND THE
   AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A WATCH...CONDITIONAL ON FURTHER STORM
   ORGANIZATION.

   DISCUSSION...SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF STORMS HAVE GRADUALLY INCREASED IN
   COVERAGE OVER THE PAST HOUR WITH COOLING TOPS ON IR IMAGERY. MOST
   RECENTLY...DEVELOPMENT HAS INCREASED OVER SWRN LOWER MI...NEAR A
   CONFLUENCE LINE AND ALSO ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH INFLUENCE. THE GRR AND DTX VWPS SHOW 30-40 KT WINDS IN THE
   LOWER PART OF THE TROPOSPHERE AND THE INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDS NEWD
   INTO LOWER MI. THIS SETUP MAY SUPPORT A DAMAGING WIND THREAT IF THE
   ACTIVITY UPSTREAM CAN PRODUCE A SUBSTANTIAL COLD POOL. ANY HAIL
   THREAT SHOULD BE MARGINAL.

   ..JEWELL/EDWARDS.. 07/18/2016


   ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...

   LAT...LON   40758421 40798643 41348665 41908615 42588530 42888399
               42668279 42198273 41708290 41178319 40758421 

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Page last modified: July 18, 2016
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