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Mesoscale Discussion 1314
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1314
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1029 AM CDT TUE JUL 08 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...OH...PA...NY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 081529Z - 081700Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A SUBSTANTIAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
   THIS MORNING AS A SQUALL LINE ORGANIZES ACROSS OH AND MOVES INTO WRN
   PA AND WRN NY. A QLCS TORNADO THREAT MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG THE
   LEADING EDGE OF THE LINE. WW ISSUANCE WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY AS
   THE SEVERE THREAT INCREASES THIS MORNING.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT FROM LOWER
   MI EXTENDING SSWWD INTO INDIANA. SFC DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
   ARE IN THE UPPER 60S F ACROSS MUCH OF THE OH VALLEY EXTENDING INTO
   THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION. MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO
   DEVELOP AS SFC TEMPS WARM OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS ALONG WITH A
   BAND OF STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
   OVER THE OH VALLEY WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FAST-MOVING
   SQUALL-LINE LATE THIS MORNING. SHORT-TERM MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST
   THAT A LINE SEGMENT IN WRN OH COULD BE THE BEGINNING OF A LINEAR MCS
   THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ENEWD ACROSS NCNTRL OH...WRN PA INTO WRN NY
   THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE WSR-88D VWP AT CLEVELAND OH AND
   PITTSBURGH PA SHOW STRONG SPEED SHEAR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 0-6
   KM SHEAR AROUND 60 KT AND UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES. THIS SHOULD
   BE FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS THE LINE SEGMENT OVER WRN OH
   GRADUALLY GROWS UPSCALE. IN ADDITION TO THE SUBSTANTIAL WIND-DAMAGE
   THREAT...ROTATING CELL ELEMENTS EMBEDDED IN THE MCS MAY BE
   ASSOCIATED WITH A THREAT FOR A TORNADO OR TWO.

   ..BROYLES/EDWARDS.. 07/08/2014


   ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX...

   LAT...LON   42907914 43777649 43497559 42717533 41467552 40787651
               40067889 39648055 39268263 39648377 40448396 40618397
               42088146 42907914 

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Page last modified: July 08, 2014
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