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Mesoscale Discussion 1314
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1314
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1201 PM CDT MON JUL 06 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...VA...MD...NORTHERN NC

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 061701Z - 061930Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM AND INTENSIFY
   OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN PARTS OF VA AND MD THIS AFTERNOON. 
   WHILE A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...THE OVERALL
   SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED.  A WATCH IS NOT
   ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

   DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN INCREASING CU FIELD
   OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN VA INTO NORTHERN NC...WHERE SURFACE
   TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 80S.  DEWPOINTS NEAR 70F AND PWAT
   VALUES OVER 1.75 IN ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000
   J/KG.  A REMNANT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS EVIDENT OVER
   SOUTH-CENTRAL VA...WITH A MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAX OVER WESTERN
   NC...BOTH POTENTIALLY CONTRIBUTING WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT.  THESE
   FACTORS SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY MID
   AFTERNOON.

   MODELS AND VAD PROFILES SUGGEST A CORRIDOR OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER MID
   LEVEL WINDS OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA...SUGGESTING SOME POTENTIAL FOR
   GUSTY WINDS IN THE STRONGER CELLS WHERE DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER
   WOULD BE MAXIMIZED.  HOWEVER...POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK
   VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGEST ANY SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE ISOLATED AND
   TRANSIENT.

   ..HART/MEAD.. 07/06/2015


   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...

   LAT...LON   36597937 37517926 39487831 39657694 38387674 36587696
               36057827 36247906 36597937 

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Page last modified: July 06, 2015
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