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Mesoscale Discussion 1315
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1315
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1236 PM CDT TUE JUL 08 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY...VT...NH...CT...MAINE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 081736Z - 081900Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL IS EXPECTED TO
   DEVELOP FROM ERN NY ENEWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND INTO SRN MAINE OVER THE
   NEXT FEW HOURS. WW ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PARTS OF THE MCD
   AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS SOUTH TO SSWLY FLOW FROM
   THE HUDSON VALLEY IN ERN NY NEWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. SFC DEWPOINTS
   ARE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S F AND TEMPS HAVE REACHED THE
   LOWER TO MID 80S F. AS A RESULT...A CORRIDOR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY
   IS ANALYZED FROM JUST SOUTH OF ALBANY NY NEWD TO NEAR PORTLAND MAINE
   WITH MLCAPE ESTIMATED IN THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE. THUNDERSTORMS
   ARE DEVELOPING IN SCNTRL NY...UPSTREAM FROM THE INSTABILITY
   GRADIENT. AS THE CONVECTION MOVES ENEWD...IT WILL ENCOUNTER MODERATE
   INSTABILITY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. IN ADDITION...THE LATEST
   WSR-88D VWP AT ALBANY SHOWS 35 TO 40 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR WITH SOME
   DIRECTIONAL SHEAR BELOW 1 KM AGL. THIS ALONG WITH THE MODERATE
   INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SEVERE MULTICELLS AND POSSIBLY A
   SUPERCELL THREAT. AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO
   STEEPEN...MULTICELLS THAT FORM INTO SHORT LINE SEGMENTS MAY HAVE AN
   ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH
   CELLS THAT HAVE ACCESS TO THE LOCALLY MAXIMIZED INSTABILITY.

   ..BROYLES/EDWARDS.. 07/08/2014


   ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...

   LAT...LON   43467036 42217277 41997414 42577525 43557508 44257384
               45127070 45146954 44506908 43467036 

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Page last modified: July 08, 2014
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