Mesoscale Discussion 1315
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0814 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2017
Areas affected...Portions of central/southern AZ
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 415...
Valid 150114Z - 150245Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 415
SUMMARY...The threat for localized strong/severe wind gusts
continues in and near Severe Thunderstorm Watch 415.
DISCUSSION...As of 01Z, the strongest convection across WW 415 was
ongoing north of Tucson, while convective intensity has diminished
near the Phoenix metro. Well-defined outflow boundaries were noted
moving southward across Maricopa County, and southwestward across
Pinal and Pima Counties. Localized strong/severe wind gusts remain
possible along these surging outflow boundaries, and also in the
vicinity of the strongest cores located upstream of the outflow.
With time, the two primary outflow boundaries will intersect south
of Phoenix and west of Tucson, and some reintensification of
convection is possible as this occurs.
Later this evening, increasing MLCINH will result in a more
definitive weakening trend, but some damaging-wind threat is likely
to continue for at least the next 1-2 hours along and west of the
I-19 corridor and south of the I-10 corridor.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 33981234 33601138 32971060 32171028 31781046 31461138
32031328 34071327 33981234