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Mesoscale Discussion 1316
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1316
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0222 PM CDT MON JUL 06 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN OK...WEST TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 061922Z - 062145Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SCATTERED STRONG TO OCCASIONALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
   CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.  WW IS NOT
   EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

   DISCUSSION...STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO
   LOWER 70S F HAVE RESULTED IN A CORRIDOR OF STRONG INSTABILITY ACROSS
   PARTS OF WEST TX AND WESTERN OK.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS MODIFIED FOR
   CURRENT SURFACE CONDITIONS SHOW A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND
   MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500-3500 J/KG.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
   EXPECTED TO FORM IN THIS REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH
   THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS FAVORABLE FOR STORM-SCALE DOWNBURSTS IN THE
   MORE INTENSE CORES.  WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND STEERING FLOW SUGGEST
   STORMS WILL BE VERY SLOW MOVING AND RATHER SHORT-LIVED.  CURRENT
   INDICATIONS ARE THAT A WATCH IS UNLIKELY.

   ..HART/MEAD.. 07/06/2015


   ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

   LAT...LON   35700083 37009933 36999819 36309831 34150018 32330073
               30530218 30110330 30840381 31810337 34230282 35240161
               35700083 

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Page last modified: July 06, 2015
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