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Mesoscale Discussion 1316
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1316
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0932 AM CDT MON JUL 18 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...NY ADIRONDACKS / VT / NH / SWRN AND SRN MAINE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 181432Z - 181630Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED RISK FOR LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE
   PRIMARILY OF A DAMAGING-WIND/HAIL THREAT...WILL LIKELY BEGIN NEAR
   MIDDAY AND DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.

   DISCUSSION...MORNING WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SPEED MAX MOVING
   OVER THE LAKE HURON VICINITY AND WITHIN THE BASE OF A TROUGH LOCATED
   OVER ONTARIO.  ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL OVERSPREAD
   NRN NY AND NWRN NEW ENGLAND FROM W TO E DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
   HOURS.  14Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE
   LOWER 80S NEAR ALB AND INTO THE UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S OVER THE
   CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.  ALTHOUGH CIRRUS CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN
   FILTERED SUNSHINE...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO
   HEAT/DESTABILIZE.  KCXX SHOWS SLY 0-1 KM FLOW VEERING TO WLY AND
   INCREASING WITH HEIGHT TO 50-KT IN THE 3-5 KM ARL LAYER.  

   GIVEN THE ABOVE-SUPPORTING FACTORS FOR STORM
   DEVELOPMENT/ORGANIZATION...EXPECTING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN STORM
   COVERAGE/INTENSIFICATION DURING THE 14-17Z PERIOD.  THE WIND/HAIL
   RISK WILL LIKELY BEGIN WITH THE STRONGER CELLULAR STORMS /INCLUDING
   THE POSSIBILITY FOR WEAK SUPERCELLS/.  THE STRONG/SEVERE STORM
   THREAT WILL PROBABLY MOVE QUICKLY DOWNSTREAM ACROSS VT/NH AND INTO
   MAINE DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS...OWING IN PART TO THE
   STRENGTH OF THE MEAN FLOW.

   ..SMITH/HART.. 07/18/2016


   ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

   LAT...LON   43777590 45067531 46366999 45416879 44186915 42947077
               43197490 43777590 

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Page last modified: July 18, 2016
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