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Mesoscale Discussion 1316
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1316
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1238 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017

   Areas affected...Much of Georgia into the Carolinas Piedmont and
   Coastal Plain

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 151738Z - 151845Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will pose a sporadic wind damage
   threat into the evening.  A WW issuance is not anticipated for this
   activity.

   DISCUSSION...Recent satellite/radar mosaic imagery indicate a
   gradual increase in convective intensity and coverage over the past
   couple of hours - mostly confined along the southern Appalachians
   and areas of eastern Georgia.  These convective trends should
   continue given strong insolation and increasing surface-based
   instability values (around 2000-3000 J/kg MUCAPE in recent objective
   analyses).  Deep shear is very weak across the region, which should
   ultimately yield loosely organized 'pulse-type' convection with
   occasional damaging surface wind gusts and hail.  This threat should
   remain too isolated/disorganized to necessitate a severe
   thunderstorm watch issuance, although a watch may be considered
   later if some semblance of larger-scale organization (i.e, along a
   forward-propagating cold pool) can occur this afternoon.

   ..Cook/Hart.. 07/15/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...BMX...

   LAT...LON   34288552 34858541 35008503 35598261 35808137 35848073
               35367967 34427951 33478012 32538065 31898130 32008266
               32378409 32608482 33638545 34288552 

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Page last modified: July 15, 2017
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