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Mesoscale Discussion 1316
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1316
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0300 PM CDT TUE JUL 08 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PA...NY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 403...

   VALID 082000Z - 082130Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 403
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS
   WW 403 LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A TORNADO OR TWO MAY ALSO OCCUR. THE
   SEVERE THREAT SHOULD EXPAND ENEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL AND ERN PARTS OF
   THE WATCH OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS.

   DISCUSSION...A BAND OF CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED SHORT LINE SEGMENTS
   AND SCATTERED SOMEWHAT DISCRETE CELLS EXTENDS SWD FROM THE BUFFALO
   NY VICINITY TO NEAR PITTSBURGH PA AND CHARLESTON WV. THIS BAND IS
   BEING SUPPORTED BY A ZONE OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT EVIDENT ON WATER
   VAPOR IMAGERY AND A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL JET MAX ANALYZED IN FAR ERN
   OH. THE JET MAX IS CREATING STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WHICH
   IS HELPING STORM ORGANIZATION. AS THE BAND OF CONVECTION CONTINUES
   TO MOVE ENEWD LATE THIS AFTERNOON...A LINEAR STRUCTURE IS EXPECTED
   TO DEVELOP AS CELL MERGERS OCCUR. THIS SHOULD INCREASE THE
   WIND-DAMAGE POTENTIAL AS THE LINE MOVES INTO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
   AIRMASS LOCATED ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN PA EXTENDING NWD INTO SCNTRL
   NY. ACCORDING TO RAP-V2 DATA...LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOW QUITE
   STEEP ALONG THIS CORRIDOR WHICH WILL HELP THE WIND-DAMAGE THREAT TO
   BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. IN ADDITION...REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS SHOW 0-3
   KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES AROUND 250 M2/S2 SUGGESTING THAT
   LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A TORNADO THREAT WITH DISCRETE CELLS
   AHEAD OF OR EMBEDDED IN THE DEVELOPING LINE.

   ..BROYLES/EDWARDS.. 07/08/2014


   ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...
   CLE...

   LAT...LON   39377868 38938016 38998082 39138096 39508085 40298047
               41188009 42837948 44407535 43037426 42207493 40307706
               39377868 

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Page last modified: July 08, 2014
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