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Mesoscale Discussion 1317
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1317
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0302 PM CDT TUE JUL 08 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN KY...FAR SWRN VA AND ERN AND PART OF
   MIDDLE TN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 082002Z - 082130Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
   THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS
   ERN KY...FAR SWRN VA AND THE ERN HALF OF TN.  OVERALL COVERAGE OF
   THE SEVERE-WEATHER THREAT REMAINS UNCERTAIN...RESULTING IN THE
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE BEING 40 PERCENT.

   DISCUSSION...EARLY-MID AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD
   FRONT EXTENDING FROM NWRN OH THROUGH SRN IND/IL TO SRN MO...WHILE A
   PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT WAS THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT
   FROM WRN PA TO ERN TN...AND THIS BOUNDARY THEN TRAILED WSWWD TO NEAR
   THE MIDDLE TN/NRN AL BORDER TO FAR NRN MS.  THE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS
   THE DISCUSSION AREA AND INTO NRN AL HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE
   SUPPORTING TSTM DEVELOPMENT.  THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM ORGANIZATION
   AND THE GREATEST SEVERE-WEATHER THREAT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO ERN
   KY...ERN TN INTO FAR SWRN VA WHERE KINEMATICS ARE STRONGER /35-40 KT
   WLY MEAN FLOW/ PER STRENGTHENING TROPOSPHERIC WINDS ALONG THE SRN
   PERIPHERY OF THE GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  STRONGEST EFFECTIVE
   BULK SHEAR OF 30-35 KT SHOULD BE CONFINED FROM ERN KY INTO SWRN VA.

   GIVEN THESE FACTORS...ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
   AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS THE PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO
   THE MODERATE INSTABILITY.  THE LACK OF STRONGER FORCING ALOFT
   SUGGESTS THE AREAL DEVELOPMENT OF TSTMS MAY NOT BECOME GREAT ENOUGH
   TO WARRANT WATCH ISSUANCE...AND THIS TREND IS SUGGESTED BY THE 12Z 4
   KM NAM.  HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR AN
   INCREASE IN COVERAGE/STRENGTH OF UPDRAFTS.  WEAKER INSTABILITY IN
   PLACE ACROSS WRN NC SUGGESTS STORMS MAY HAVE DIFFICULTY MAINTAINING
   SUSTENANCE TOO FAR EAST OF THE TN/NC BORDER.

   ..PETERS/EDWARDS.. 07/08/2014


   ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...OHX...HUN...

   LAT...LON   37668245 37228188 36568176 35878286 35188466 35118645
               35518654 36488519 37458328 37668245 

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Page last modified: July 08, 2014
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