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Mesoscale Discussion 1317
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1317
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1040 AM CDT MON JUL 18 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF MA / RI / CT / ERN AND SRN NY / NRN NJ /
   ERN AND SERN PA / NRN MD AND DE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 181540Z - 181715Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP PREFERENTIALLY ON THE LEAD
   GUST FRONT/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE.  A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED /80 PERCENT/ FOR THE AREA GENERALLY INCLUDING
   AN AREA FROM NRN NJ/NERN PA INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND.  FARTHER S...THE
   SEVERE THREAT MAY BE LESS ORGANIZED AND THE PROBABILITY FOR A SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR SERN PA INTO MD IS 40 PERCENT.

   DISCUSSION...VISIBLE-SATELLITE IMAGERY LATE THIS MORNING SHOWS
   CLUSTERS OF STORMS OVER SWRN PA AND ANOTHER CLUSTER OVER N-CNTRL PA
   AND S-CNTRL NY.  WEAKENING OUTFLOW FROM THIS EARLY-DAY CONVECTION IS
   GRADUALLY PROGRESSING E OVER CNTRL PA INTO SRN PORTIONS OF NY.  THE
   BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF AREA HAS WARMED CONSIDERABLY WITH TEMPS
   AROUND 90 DEG F OVER MA/CT SWD INTO DELAWARE RIVER VALLEY.  ADEQUATE
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S ARE ALSO
   CONTRIBUTING TO WEAK BUOYANCY /500-1000 J PER KG MLCAPE PER MODIFIED
   12Z RAOBS/ WITH ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION EXPECTED.  THE STRONGER
   0-6 KM SHEAR IS FORECAST FROM PORTIONS OF NERN PA AND NRN NJ NWD
   INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND /25-35 KT/.  AS A RESULT...STORMS WILL PROBABLY
   ACQUIRE SOME STORM ORGANIZATION IN THE FORM OF ORGANIZED MULTICELLS
   WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.  THE THREAT FOR ISOLD WIND DAMAGE WILL BE
   THE PRIMARY HAZARD BUT SMALL HAIL COULD OCCUR ON A VERY LOCALIZED
   BASIS AS WELL.  

   FARTHER S IN S-CNTRL PA AND MD EWD INTO THE DELAWARE RIVER
   VALLEY...STORMS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS THE STORMS
   MOVE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  WLY MEAN FLOW AROUND 25 KT AND
   STEEP 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES /8-9 DEG C PER KM/ MAY COMBINE TO YIELD
   SEVERAL STRONGER STORMS AND/OR SMALL CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF AN ISOLD
   THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE.

   ..SMITH/HART.. 07/18/2016


   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...
   LWX...

   LAT...LON   40037791 42387496 43707501 43517344 42767257 42597104
               41717111 40717371 39287591 39397728 40037791 

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Page last modified: July 18, 2016
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