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Mesoscale Discussion 1318
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1318
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0342 PM CDT TUE JUL 08 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN VA...ERN WV...MD...DE...NJ...SE PA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 082042Z - 082145Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID
   ATLANTIC LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL BECOME
   POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. WW ISSUANCE IS LIKELY SOON
   ACROSS THE REGION.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
   EXTENDING SWD FROM SRN PA ACROSS CNTRL VA ALONG WHICH DEWPOINTS ARE
   IN THE 60S F. IN RESPONSE TO SFC HEATING...MLCAPE HAS INCREASED INTO
   THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE ACROSS THE MCD AREA. AS THE LINE OVER
   ERN WV MOVES INTO MODERATE INSTABILITY WHERE 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES ARE
   ESTIMATED IN THE 8.0 TO 9.0 C/KM RANGE...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
   CONTINUE AND MAY INCREASE. AT 2018Z...EKN REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 54
   KT WHICH CONFIRMS A WIND DAMAGE THREAT IS ALREADY ASSOCIATED WITH
   THE LINE IN ERN WV. THIS POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS SHOULD
   CONTINUE AS THE LINE MOVES QUICKLY TO THE EAST AT 50 TO 55 KTS INTO
   NRN VA...MD AND SERN PA LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

   ..BROYLES/EDWARDS.. 07/08/2014


   ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...

   LAT...LON   37697701 37597872 38357966 39927845 40927680 40977508
               39867420 37697701 

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Page last modified: July 08, 2014
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