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Mesoscale Discussion 1318
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1318
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0239 PM CDT TUE JUL 07 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN AND S-CNTRL NM INTO FAR WRN TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 071939Z - 072115Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY
   DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR HAIL MAY INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
   AFTERNOON.  A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...DIABATIC HEATING ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN COUPLED WITH
   LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AND THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL
   PERTURBATION APPROACHING THE FOUR CORNERS REGION HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO
   AN INCREASE IN STORMS AS OF 1925Z OVER PORTIONS OF
   CATRON...SOCORRO...GRANT AND SIERRA COUNTIES IN SWRN NM.  RECENT
   CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ADDITIONAL STORMS
   ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER S-CNTRL NM AND FAR WRN TX /INCLUDING THE
   EL PASO AREA/ THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

   WHILE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP...DEWPOINTS
   IN THE 50S AND FURTHER BOUNDARY-LAYER WARMING WILL YIELD MLCAPE
   VALUES PEAKING IN TO THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE.  WHEN COMBINED WITH A
   WIND PROFILE EXHIBITING WLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT IN THE 6-7 KM AGL
   LAYER ATOP LIGHT ELY/NELY SURFACE WINDS...THE SETUP MAY PROMOTE A
   FEW WEAKLY ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS
   AND/OR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.  DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THIS
   THREAT...A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

   ..MEAD.. 07/07/2015


   ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...

   LAT...LON   31800736 32590805 33330805 33710760 33870718 33800621
               33400578 32560515 31570528 31100528 30960548 31160585
               31540630 31780653 31800736 

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Page last modified: July 07, 2015
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