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Mesoscale Discussion 1319
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1319
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0445 PM CDT TUE JUL 08 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY...INCLUDING THE NYC METRO...VT...MA...CT

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 082145Z - 082245Z

   CORRECTED FOR GEOGRAPHIC AREA

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL EXTEND EAST OF CURRENT SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORM WATCH 403. A NEW WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED WITHIN THE
   NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

   DISCUSSION...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SOON
   DOWNSTREAM OF WATCH 403 ACROSS ERN NY...INCLUDING THE NYC METRO
   AREA...INTO VT AND PORTIONS OF MA/CT. A VERY SIMILAR AIRMASS EXISTS
   ACROSS THIS AREA...DOWNSTREAM OF EASTWARD ADVANCING BOWING SEGMENTS.
   STRONG BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS ALONG WITH MODEST INSTABILITY AND A
   DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 DEG F SHOULD MAINTAIN INTENSITY
   AND ORGANIZATION OF THE LINE OF STORMS. ADDITIONALLY...POCKETS OF
   DCAPE GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG WILL FURTHER ENHANCE DAMAGING WIND
   POTENTIAL. A WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR
   TWO.

   ..LEITMAN/HART.. 07/08/2014


   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...

   LAT...LON   45087400 45017209 44497185 42847212 41267248 40757268
               40597294 40527357 40617403 40867456 41437503 42877526
               44457550 44947506 45087400 

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Page last modified: July 08, 2014
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