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Mesoscale Discussion 1319
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MD 1319 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 1319
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0454 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017

   Areas affected...central through northeast Wisconsin and southern
   Upper Michigan

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 152154Z - 160000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to gradually increase in
   intensity as they develop southward through central and eastern WI
   this evening. The stronger storms could produce damaging wind and
   large hail. Trends will continue be monitored for a possible WW.

   DISCUSSION...Early this evening a cold front extends from central
   Upper MI through northern WI. Warm front stretches from southwest
   through eastern WI. A moist and moderately to strongly unstable
   airmass is in place between these two boundaries with objective
   analysis indicating 2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE across central WI. Ascent
   associated with a southeast-advancing shortwave trough and frontal
   convergence will continue to foster the development of storms
   through central and eastern WI into southern Lower MI next few
   hours. Modest wind profiles with westerly near-surface flow veering
   to northwesterly is supporting 25-35 kt effective bulk shear. This
   environment will promote multicell and some marginal supercell
   structures capable of large hail and a few instances of damaging

   ..Dial/Edwards.. 07/15/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   45208979 45648777 45278714 44088787 43508873 43728993
               44499032 45208979 

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