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Mesoscale Discussion 1319
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1319
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0335 PM CDT TUE JUL 07 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL APPALACHIANS...LOWER GREAT LAKES

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 072035Z - 072300Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CNTRL
   APPALACHIAN MTNS AND IN THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
   STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS CELLS INITIATE AND INTENSIFY
   OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WW ISSUANCE APPEARS UNLIKELY DUE TO THE
   MARGINAL NATURE OF THE THREAT.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT
   LOCATED FROM CNTRL IND NEWD TO LAKE ERIE. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AN
   AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRESENT WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE
   GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S F. AS SFC TEMPS HAVE WARMED
   INTO THE 80S F ALONG THE MOIST AXIS...MODERATE INSTABILITY HAS
   DEVELOPED WITH MLCAPE VALUES ESTIMATED IN THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG
   RANGE. IN RESPONSE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN
   COVERAGE ALONG THE CORRIDOR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM ERN KY
   NNEWD INTO WRN PA AND WRN NY. REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS ALONG THIS
   CORRIDOR SHOW UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WITH 25 TO 35 KT OF WSWLY
   FLOW IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS...RESULTING IN ABOUT 20 KT OF 0-6 KM
   SHEAR. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITH
   MULTICELLS THAT HAVE ACCESS TO LOCALLY MAXIMIZED INSTABILITY LATE
   THIS AFTERNOON.

   ..BROYLES/MEAD.. 07/07/2015


   ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...RNK...PBZ...RLX...CLE...MRX...
   JKL...ILN...LMK...

   LAT...LON   37138159 37228313 37488362 37818400 38358395 39478303
               40198245 40908187 42248009 42777936 43117881 43147809
               43007736 42857698 42477693 41957726 40867847 39947922
               38498033 37998080 37138159 

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Page last modified: July 07, 2015
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