|Mesoscale Discussion 1320|
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Mesoscale Discussion 1320
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0754 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017
Areas affected...central through southern Wisconsin
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 416...
Valid 160054Z - 160230Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 416
SUMMARY...Threat for a few instances of large hail and locally
strong wind gusts will persist next couple hours as storms continue
moving southward through central and southern WI.
DISCUSSION...Broken line of multicell storms continues developing
south along a cold front through central WI. Storms are moving
around 20 kt and will pose at least a modest risk for hail and gusty
winds as they advance through the corridor of 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE
next couple hours. The 00Z RAOB from Green Bay indicated 1600 J/kg
MLCAPE and around 7 C/km low-mid level lapse rates. Inversions were
evident at 750 and 650 mb and suggest updraft accelerations are
likely limited in the lowest few km. The low-level thermodynamic
environment will become increasingly marginal as the near-surface
layer cools. This in conjunction with modest (31 kt) sfc-6 km
effective bulk shear will probably remain limiting factors for a
more robust severe event.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 43889059 44408874 44508757 42918816 42689054 43299109
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