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Mesoscale Discussion 1320
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1320
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0754 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017

   Areas affected...central through southern Wisconsin

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 416...

   Valid 160054Z - 160230Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 416

   SUMMARY...Threat for a few instances of large hail and locally
   strong wind gusts will persist next couple hours as storms continue
   moving southward through central and southern WI.

   DISCUSSION...Broken line of multicell storms continues developing
   south along a cold front through central WI. Storms are moving
   around 20 kt and will pose at least a modest risk for hail and gusty
   winds as they advance through the corridor of 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE
   next couple hours. The 00Z RAOB from Green Bay indicated 1600 J/kg
   MLCAPE and around 7 C/km low-mid level lapse rates. Inversions were
   evident at 750 and 650 mb and suggest updraft accelerations are
   likely limited in the lowest few km. The low-level thermodynamic
   environment will become increasingly marginal as the near-surface
   layer cools. This in conjunction with modest (31 kt) sfc-6 km
   effective bulk shear will probably remain limiting factors for a
   more robust severe event.

   ..Dial.. 07/16/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   43889059 44408874 44508757 42918816 42689054 43299109

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