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Mesoscale Discussion 1320
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1320
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0340 PM CDT TUE JUL 07 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SE MT...SW ND...NW/W-CNTRL SD

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 072040Z - 072245Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SVR STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS. MARGINAL AND ISOLATED NATURE OF THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
   PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A LOW OVER FAR E-CNTRL
   MT /ROUGHLY CENTERED NEAR THE PRAIRIE...CUSTER...AND FALLON COUNTY
   INTERSECTION/ WITH A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING SWD ACROSS CARTER COUNTY
   MT AND THEN SWWD INTO CNTRL WY. CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY INITIATED
   ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IN FAR SW CARTER COUNTY WITH THE VISIBLE
   SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALING ADDITION BUILD-UPS IN THIS AREA. 

   DECENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH DEWPOINTS
   GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S. THIS IS HELPING SUPPORT MODEST INSTABILITY
   -- MLCAPE AROUND 500 J PER KG -- DESPITE POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
   KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT IS A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WITH RECENT
   MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATING EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 40 KT. AS
   SUCH...THIS ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTIVE OF WEAKLY ORGANIZED STORM
   STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF HAIL. SOME GUSTY WINDS CANT ENTIRELY BE RULED
   OUT BUT MODERATE TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS AND REGIONALLY LOW
   LCLS SHOULD KEEP THE WIND THREAT LOW. GIVEN THE MARGINAL NATURE OF
   THE THREAT AND EXPECTED ISOLATED COVERAGE...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

   ..MOSIER/MEAD.. 07/07/2015


   ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...

   LAT...LON   44470251 43810349 44030477 45070518 46280480 46930444
               47280394 47280288 47040241 46660214 46070193 45170209
               44470251 

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Page last modified: July 07, 2015
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