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Mesoscale Discussion 1320
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1320
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0515 PM CDT TUE JUL 08 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL AR...FAR NERN OK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 082215Z - 082315Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT ARE
   EXPECTED TO SPREAD SSEWD TOWARDS CNTRL AR...WITH ADDITIONAL TSTM
   DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE WWD INTO FAR NERN OK. THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH
   THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED STRONG-SVR WIND GUSTS.
   IT IS UNCERTAIN IF COVERAGE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A WW...BUT TRENDS
   WILL BE MONITORED.

   DISCUSSION...TSTMS HAVE INITIATED WITHIN THE PAST 1-2 HRS OVER NRN
   AR...AND WERE LOCATED OVER NEWTON/SEARCY COUNTIES AS OF 22Z. THIS
   ACTIVITY WAS OCCURRING ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT...AND WAS
   EXHIBITING POTENTIAL FOR PRODUCING AT LEAST MARGINALLY SVR HAIL PER
   THE WDSS-2 MESH ALGORITHM. VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST
   ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT MAY BE POSSIBLE INVOF OF ONGOING
   TSTMS...WHERE CU FIELD IS GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE VERTICALLY
   ENHANCED. 

   VERTICAL SHEAR IS SUPPORTIVE FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS TO
   PROPAGATE S/SEWD...AMIDST MIDLEVEL FLOW AROUND 30 KT WHICH DECREASES
   WITH SWD EXTENT. HOWEVER...RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND A MORE
   UNSTABLE AIR MASS /CHARACTERIZED BY 2500-3000 J/KG/ IS IN PLACE
   ACROSS CNTRL AR...WHICH SHOULD FAVOR TSTM MAINTENANCE FOR THE NEXT
   FEW HRS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED IF THE
   POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD/ORGANIZED SVR CONVECTION BECOMES
   APPARENT...IN WHICH CASE A WW MAY BE NEEDED.

   ..ROGERS/HART.. 07/08/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...TSA...

   LAT...LON   35569036 34839121 34689202 34669305 34709415 35179496
               35489518 35809512 36009472 36089418 36209277 36229187
               36309143 36139054 35569036 

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Page last modified: July 08, 2014
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