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Mesoscale Discussion 1321
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1321
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0501 PM CDT MON JUL 18 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...W CENTRAL AND NW MT

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 182201Z - 182330Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AND
   SPREAD NEWD THIS EVENING.  ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG OUTFLOW WILL BE
   POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS...BUT STORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY
   WILL LIKELY REMAIN TOO LOW FOR A WATCH.

   DISCUSSION...STRONG SURFACE HEATING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN IN WRN MT
   IS BEGINNING TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT W OF HELENA AND
   KALISPELL.  THE CONVECTION IS ROOTED IN A STEEP LAPSE RATE
   ENVIRONMENT WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR FOR
   SUPERCELLS...DOWNSTREAM FROM THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW
   COAST.  SINCE THE CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE TIED PRIMARILY TO TERRAIN
   CIRCULATIONS...RATHER MODEST MOISTURE/BUOYANCY AND REMAINING
   CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS CAST DOUBT ON
   STORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.  WILL
   CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AREA...BUT OVERALL EXPECTATIONS ARE TOO
   MARGINAL TO WARRANT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

   ..THOMPSON/GRAMS.. 07/18/2016


   ATTN...WFO...TFX...MSO...

   LAT...LON   47761183 47421126 47001111 46741120 46531144 46451180
               46621219 47001280 47511431 47911484 48371502 48611488
               48781451 48851421 48101314 47911253 47761183 

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Page last modified: July 18, 2016
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