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Mesoscale Discussion 1321
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1321
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0229 AM CDT WED JUL 08 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...EAST-CENTRAL TO SOUTH-CENTRAL OK...WESTERN AR AND
   FAR NORTH-CENTRAL TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 080729Z - 081030Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND/OR A BRIEF...WEAK TORNADO
   CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH STORMS THAT CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
   INTO EARLY THIS MORNING FROM FAR NORTH-CENTRAL TX INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL
   AND PARTS OF EASTERN OK AND NORTHWEST AR.

   DISCUSSION...EARLY OVERNIGHT SURFACE ANALYSES SHOWED A FRONT
   EXTENDING WWD THROUGH SRN MO INTO NERN OK...AND THEN SWWD TO AN AREA
   OF LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTH-CENTRAL OK /APPROXIMATELY 25 SE CHK/ AND
   THEN THROUGH NORTH-CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL TX.  THE INCREASE IN
   LIGHTNING SINCE 04-05Z ALONG THIS BOUNDARY LIKELY INDICATES THE
   INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER ASCENT ATTENDANT TO 1/ EXPECTED STRENGTHENING
   OF A SSWLY LLJ /40-45 KT/ ALONG AND EAST OF THIS FRONT FROM TX INTO
   ERN OK/WRN AR OVERNIGHT TO EARLY THIS MORNING...AND 2/ DPVA
   ATTENDANT TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING ENEWD INTO SRN OK AT
   THIS TIME.  ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES ARE QUITE WEAK...THE PRESENCE OF
   RICH MOISTURE /PW VALUES OF 2-2.25 INCHES/ IS SUPPORTING WEAK
   INSTABILITY.

   00Z ECMWF SUGGESTS THE SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT REACHES
   NORTHEAST OK BY 12Z...FURTHER ENHANCING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. 
   EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS OVER ERN OK TO WRN AR ARE ENHANCING LOW-LEVEL
   SHEAR NEAR THE SURFACE FRONT...WITH RADAR IMAGERY INDICATING MOST
   CELLS ALONG THE FRONT HAVE SOME ROTATION AND A FEW HAVE HAD
   PERSISTENT ROTATIONAL COUPLETS.  OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED
   EFFECTIVE SRH OF 100-200 M2/S2 ALONG AND EAST OF THE FRONT IN SRN TO
   ERN OK WITH SIMILAR VALUES FORECAST TO SPREAD INTO WRN AR THROUGH
   EARLY MORNING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SURFACE LOW AND MIDLEVEL
   TROUGH.  ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN QUITE WEAK...A BRIEF
   TORNADO AND/OR LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH
   EARLY MORNING.  GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD FOR THE LLJ TO PERSIST INTO
   THIS MORNING AND FURTHER DEEPENING OF THE TRANSIENT SURFACE
   LOW...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ADDITIONAL TSTMS...INCLUDING LINE
   SEGMENTS. ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR A WATCH IS RELATIVELY
   LOW...THIS REGION WILL BE MONITORED FOR ANY INCREASE IN TSTM
   INTENSITIES AND COVERAGE THAT COULD WARRANT THE NEED FOR A WATCH.

   ..PETERS/CORFIDI.. 07/08/2015


   ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   34909732 35569646 36319542 36449496 36309429 36089394
               35769391 35299438 34699522 34069604 33699662 33499731
               33579793 34909732 

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Page last modified: July 08, 2015
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