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Mesoscale Discussion 1321
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1321
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0606 PM CDT TUE JUL 08 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/CNTRL OK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 082306Z - 090000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A LOCALIZED THREAT FOR STRONG-SVR WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL
   EXIST ACROSS SRN/CNTRL OK THIS EVENING. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
   REMAIN INSUFFICIENT FOR A WW.

   DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING ALONG A WEAK COLD
   FRONT ORIENTED W-E FROM COMANCHE INTO PONTOTOC COUNTIES. WEAK
   DEEP-LAYER FLOW IS LIMITING TSTM ORGANIZATION...WHICH IS REFLECTED
   BY PULSE-LIKE APPEARANCE AND GENERATION OF SEVERAL OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARIES IN RECENT RADAR IMAGERY. HOWEVER...STRONG HEATING AMIDST
   RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE HAS YIELDED A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR
   MASS /MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG/...AND DEEP INVERTED-V
   THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES. AS A RESULT...A THREAT FOR LOCALIZED DMGG
   WIND GUSTS VIA STRONG DOWNBURSTS MAY EXIST WITH THESE STORMS...AND
   PERHAPS BRIEF OCCURRENCES OF SVR HAIL. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TSTM
   DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY THE NEXT 1-3 HRS...PRIMARILY ALONG OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARIES AND THE WEAK COLD FRONT...BUT THE THREAT FOR DMGG WINDS
   SHOULD WANE AFTER SUNSET.

   ..ROGERS/HART.. 07/08/2014


   ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

   LAT...LON   34669576 34409741 34429832 34519915 34849941 35079931
               35449762 35519677 35379603 35189565 34959564 34669576 

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Page last modified: July 09, 2014
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