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Mesoscale Discussion 1322
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1322
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0157 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of the Southeast

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 161857Z - 162100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A threat of localized wind damage and small/marginally
   severe hail will exist through early evening. Watch issuance is not
   expected.

   DISCUSSION...Scattered to numerous thunderstorms have developed
   across portions of southern Georgia and vicinity this afternoon.
   Deep-layer flow fields are fairly weak, such that cell evolution is
   generally being driven by propagation along advancing/merging
   outflow and sea breeze boundaries. However, such merging cold pools
   and cell interactions may locally enhance the threat of damaging
   wind gusts over the next several hours. Furthermore, surface
   temperatures have risen into the upper 80s/lower 90s in many
   locations, which is combining with dew points in the lower 70s to
   yield MLCAPE values upwards of 2000-2500 J/kg. In turn, the
   strongest cores will remain capable of isolated damaging gusts and
   small to marginally severe hail through early evening.

   ..Picca/Hart.. 07/16/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...MLB...TBW...JAX...FFC...TAE...

   LAT...LON   30028146 29698139 28978152 28728165 28488229 28598274
               29168290 29718333 30718372 31448458 32158453 32588343
               33328224 34258058 34317998 33837909 33197936 32707993
               32748005 32128089 30758165 30108146 30028146 

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Page last modified: July 16, 2017
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