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Mesoscale Discussion 1322
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1322
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0109 PM CDT WED JUL 08 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN/EAST-CENTRAL MO TO SOUTHERN IL/FAR WESTERN
   KY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 081809Z - 082015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES/WIND DAMAGE IS
   EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH MID/LATE
   AFTERNOON...INITIALLY WITHIN A CORRIDOR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF
   MO /INCLUDING THE I-44 VICINITY SOUTHWARD/ AND SUBSEQUENTLY INTO FAR
   SOUTHERN IL/FAR WESTERN KY. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE CLOSELY
   MONITORED THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO WATCH
   ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS FEATURES A 1011 MB SURFACE
   LOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST/WEST-CENTRAL MO AT MIDDAY...WITH A STRONG
   BAROCLINIC ZONE/WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM THE LOW ACROSS
   THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF MO INTO AREAS GENERALLY NEAR THE OH RIVER IN
   KY AND FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF IL/INDIANA. ON THE EASTERN FRINGE OF
   EARLY DAY CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...SOME OF
   THE SHOWERS/UPDRAFTS ACROSS SOUTHERN MO HAVE SHOWN MODEST SIGNS OF
   DEEPENING SINCE LATE MORNING WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY WARM/MODEST
   UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AND RELATED CORRIDOR OF MODEST CLOUD BREAKS
   PER VISIBLE SATELLITE.

   GIVEN AN INCREASINGLY WEAKLY CAPPED/UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AND
   PROBABLE STRENGTHENING OF LOW/MID-TROPOSPHERIC WINDS THROUGH LATE
   AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...THERE IS CONCERN FOR THESE DEEPENING
   SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO ACQUIRE LOW-LEVEL ROTATION AS THEY
   INTENSIFY. LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS MAY BE A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE
   REGION...BUT A TORNADO RISK MAY EXIST PARTICULARLY WITH STORMS
   DEVELOPING NEAR/INTERACTING WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WEST-EAST
   FRONTAL ZONE.

   ..GUYER/MEAD.. 07/08/2015


   ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...

   LAT...LON   36879267 37799246 38459029 38118877 37068891 36689123
               36879267 

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Page last modified: July 08, 2015
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