Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 1323
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 1323 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1323
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0158 PM CDT WED JUL 08 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN/S-CNTRL MO...NWRN/N-CNTRL AR...SERN OK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 081858Z - 082030Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A NE-SW-ORIENTED BAND OF TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
   ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A RISK FOR MAINLY
   ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.  A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...RECENT TRENDS IN MOSAIC RADAR DATA INDICATE A DEEPENING
   BAND OF CONVECTION FROM NEAR SGF SWWD THROUGH NWRN AR TO E-CNTRL OK
   /SW OF FSM/.  18Z MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THIS ACTIVITY IS FORMING
   AHEAD OF THE WEAKENING SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT...ALONG THE LEADING EDGE
   OF DENSER CLOUD COVER WHERE RAP-BASED MLCAPE HAS INCREASED TO
   500-1000 J/KG.  THE GLANCING INFLUENCE OF THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
   LIFTING NEWD INTO THE OZARKS COUPLED WITH CONTINUED BOUNDARY-LAYER
   HEATING AND RESULTANT AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION SHOULD PROMOTE
   ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT AND OVERALL INTENSIFICATION OF THE
   CONVECTIVE BAND AS IT MOVES INTO S-CNTRL MO/N-CNTRL AR LATER THIS
   AFTERNOON.  OTHER STRONG STORMS EVOLVING E OF DUA WILL AFFECT PARTS
   OF SERN OK WITHIN THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS.

   AREA WSR-88D VAD DATA INDICATE A UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP-LAYER WIND
   FIELD ALIGNED LARGELY PARALLEL TO THE DEVELOPING BAND OF STORMS
   WHICH SHOULD FAVOR UPSCALE GROWTH INTO LINE SEGMENTS.  GIVEN THE
   HIGH-PW ENVIRONMENT AND MODESTLY STRONG SWLY FLOW IN THE LOWEST 3-4
   KM AGL...WATER-LOADING OF CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFTS AND DOWNWARD
   MOMENTUM TRANSFER MAY RESULT IN LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AT THE
   SURFACE.  THIS THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED AND A WATCH IS
   NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

   ..MEAD.. 07/08/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...

   LAT...LON   34489506 35749426 37059359 37359330 37379268 37299220
               37099172 36789160 36119179 35769210 35299264 34809346
               34289437 34259485 34489506 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: July 08, 2015
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities