Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 1323
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 1323 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1323
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0758 PM CDT TUE JUL 08 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL AZ

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 090058Z - 090200Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED DMGG WIND AND HAIL POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE
   INCREASING ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS OF S-CNTRL AZ THIS EVENING. THE
   POSSIBILITY FOR WW ISSUANCE WILL BE PREDICATED ON WHETHER A MORE
   WIDESPREAD WIND THREAT MAY DEVELOP...AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS CONTINUE
   TO BE MONITORED.

   DISCUSSION...00Z SOUNDINGS FROM TWC AND PSR SAMPLED A VERY UNSTABLE
   AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY A STEEP LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATE
   PROFILE...WITH MLCAPES RANGING FROM 750-1500 J/KG OVER THE LOWER
   DESERTS OF AZ /AROUND 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THE DATE/. TSTM
   DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN ISOLATED THUS FAR TO THE DESERTS OF SERN AZ AND
   THE HIGHER TERRAIN E OF PHX...BUT MORE RECENT TRENDS HAVE SHOWN
   INTENSIFYING PULSE CONVECTION OVER PIMA...SERN PINAL...AND GILA
   COUNTIES. VWP/SOUNDING DATA INDICATE MIDLEVEL WINDS ARE NOT
   PARTICULARLY STRONG /10-20 KT OUT OF THE SE/...BUT SUFFICIENT FOR
   TSTMS AND ASSOCIATED OUTFLOWS TO CONTINUE PROPAGATING IN A GENERAL
   WWD/NWWD DIRECTION TOWARDS CNTRL AZ...INCLUDING THE GREATER PHOENIX
   AREA LATER THIS EVENING...WITH INDIVIDUAL TSTMS POSING A LOCALIZED
   THREAT FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. A MORE WIDESPREAD DMGG WIND
   THREAT WILL REMAIN CONTINGENT ON TSTMS ORGANIZING INTO MULTICELL
   CLUSTERS...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE GRADUALLY SHOWING AN INCREASE
   IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.

   ..ROGERS/HART.. 07/09/2014


   ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

   LAT...LON   33561000 33060989 32431006 32031072 31891156 31951218
               32251279 32801294 33251301 33711285 33911205 33951092
               33561000 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: July 09, 2014
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities