MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1323
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0522 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WY...NEB PANHANDLE...NERN CO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 511...
   
   VALID 252222Z - 252315Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 511
   CONTINUES.
   
   THE THREAT FOR MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS CONTINUES
   FOR WW 511.
   
   NUMEROUS STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO SPREAD NE AWAY FROM THE FRONT RANGE
   OF COLORADO AND ONTO THE LOWER PLAINS...WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY
   DEVELOPING DURING THE LAST HOUR OR SO NNW OF BFF IN ERN WY AND THE
   NRN NEB PANHANDLE. THESE STORMS ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF
   A PLUME OF VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SPREADING E BENEATH A
   MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
   EXTENDS EWD FROM A SURFACE LOW POSITIONED OVER ERN CO...WITH ELY
   UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW MAINTAINING UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS OVER THE
   CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL
   MOISTURE CONTINUE TO CONTRIBUTE TOWARD 1000-2000 J/KG MLCAPE VALUES
   ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT. AREA VWP/S AND RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE RATHER
   WEAK WIND SPEEDS OVER THE LOWEST FEW KM/S OF THE ATMOSPHERE...THOUGH
   ELY SURFACE WINDS VEERING TO WSW AND INCREASING IN SPEED TO 40+ KT
   IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A THREAT OF SUPERCELL
   STORM STRUCTURES PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THUS FAR
   SEVERE WEATHER HAS BEEN LIMITED...BUT SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE
   INDICATES THAT SSELY LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE IN STRENGTH TOWARD
   SUNSET. THIS MAY AID IN STORM PROPAGATION FARTHER E ONTO THE
   PLAINS...AND PERHAPS CONTRIBUTE TOWARD AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM
   INTENSITY AS STORM RELATIVE INFLOW STRENGTHENS.
   
   ..GARNER.. 06/25/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...
   
   LAT...LON   42840551 42860276 39130249 39140509 42840551