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Mesoscale Discussion 1324
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1324
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0325 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017

   Areas affected...Much of Arizona

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 162025Z - 162130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Sporadic damaging wind gusts are possible with storms
   migrating across the discussion area this afternoon.  A WW is not
   anticipated for this activity, although convective trends will be
   monitored.

   DISCUSSION...The region is under a similar synoptic regime as has
   been observed for multiple afternoons recently, with scattered
   convection developing along the higher terrain of central into
   southeastern Arizona (i.e., the Mogollon Rim) and propagating
   west-southwestward into lower elevations.  A 40 knot wind gust was
   reported near Douglas, AZ in the past 30 minutes, and additional
   storms may produce strong-to-severe wind gusts into the evening -
   especially in localized areas where storms can merge outflows and
   form forward-propagating linear segments.  Appreciable instability
   downstream of these storms (approaching 2000 J/kg MUCAPE) and 20-25
   knot easterly mid-level flow will further support a damaging
   downburst wind threat into western/central/southern portions of the
   discussion area into the early evening.

   The threat is expected to be too sparse to necessitate a severe
   thunderstorm watch, although convective trends will be monitored
   into the evening.

   ..Cook.. 07/16/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF...

   LAT...LON   35811454 36051406 36031308 35591229 34741119 34121022
               33180934 32300913 31520932 31320982 31361095 31361095
               31701221 32531337 33601416 35111449 35811454 

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Page last modified: July 16, 2017
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