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Mesoscale Discussion 1324
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1324
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0232 PM CDT WED JUL 08 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SE AZ...SW/S-CNTRL NM...FAR W TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 081932Z - 082100Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TSTM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS SW/S-CNTRL
   NM...EVENTUALLY REACHING FAR W TX. SOME SVR HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
   POSSIBLE BUT THE ISOLATED AND MARGINAL NATURE OF THE THREAT IS
   EXPECTED TO PREVENT THE NEED FOR A WW.

   DISCUSSION...CONVECTIVE INTENSITY AND COVERAGE HAS CONTINUED TO
   INCREASE OVER THE PAST HOUR WITH 30 DBZ REACHING OVER 9 KM IN FEW
   STORMS. THE ENVIRONMENT DOWNSTREAM OF THIS ACTIVITY IS VERY SIMILAR
   TO THE ENVIRONMENT IT DEVELOPED WITHIN...SUGGESTING CONTINUED
   DEVELOPMENT DOWNSTREAM. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL ACT AS THE MAIN
   IMPETUS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITH ADDITIONAL /BUT MODEST/ LARGE
   SCALE SUPPORT PROVIDED BY THE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
   FOUR CORNERS. 

   KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT IS NOT THAT FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED ACTIVITY
   WITH RECENT MESOANALYSIS INDICATE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR LESS THAN 30 KT
   AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 25 TO 30 KT. THIS LACK OF STORM
   ORGANIZATION IS EXPECTED TO TEMPER THE SVR THREAT ALTHOUGH SOME
   ISOLATED SVR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. ISOLATED THREAT
   WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW.

   ..MOSIER/MEAD.. 07/08/2015


   ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...

   LAT...LON   31310824 31470895 32540944 33550919 34030861 33950765
               33280683 32320596 31820612 31760670 31840813 31310824 

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Page last modified: July 08, 2015
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