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Mesoscale Discussion 1325
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1325
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0336 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017

   Areas affected...Parts of the northern Rockies and northern High
   Plains

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 162036Z - 162230Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to develop across parts of the
   region this afternoon. Isolated severe/damaging gusts and marginally
   severe hail will be possible. However, the threat should remained
   sufficiently isolated/disorganized to preclude watch issuance.

   DISCUSSION...Along the fringe of a subtle impulse within
   southwesterly flow aloft, strengthening terrain circulations have
   promoted isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms this afternoon.
   Surface temperatures in the 80s/90s, coupled with adequate
   boundary-layer moisture, have resulted in MLCAPE values around
   500-750 J/kg -- sufficient for a few more vigorous updrafts.
   Associated with these more intense cells, downward transfer of
   stronger flow aloft, as well as ample evaporative cooling within a
   deep/well-mixed boundary layer, will be favorable for a few
   strong/severe gusts. Moreover, effective shear of 30-40 kt, and
   non-trivial CAPE within the preferred hail-growth zone, may support
   isolated instances of marginally severe hail through the evening
   hours. Nonetheless, a lack of more substantive organization should
   preclude the need for a watch.

   ..Picca/Hart.. 07/16/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...PIH...

   LAT...LON   44661210 47230924 47790721 47890551 47740499 47020438
               46190456 45140557 44550791 44080990 43811081 43771109
               44261225 44661210 

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Page last modified: July 16, 2017
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