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Mesoscale Discussion 1325
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1325
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0315 PM CDT WED JUL 08 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NE NM...FAR NW TX PANHANDLE...FAR WRN OK PANHANDLE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 082015Z - 082115Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TSTMS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE REGION
   WITH SOME HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. A WW MAY BE NEEDED TO
   COVER THIS POTENTIAL SEVERE THREAT.

   DISCUSSION...RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN INCREASED CU
   DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE LEE TROUGH /ROUGHLY FROM TAD IN S-CNTRL CO TO
   W OF SRR IN CNTRL NM/ WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FARTHER W IN THE
   HIGHER TERRAIN ALSO INCREASING IN STRENGTH. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
   SUGGESTS THE CAP HAS ERODED ACROSS NE NM WITH EXPECTATION OF
   CONTINUED HEATING ACTING TO INCREASE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION.
   THIS UNSTABLE AIRMASS COUPLED WITH INCREASE LARGE SCALE ASCENT
   RESULTING FROM THE VORT MAX MOVING SEWD INTO NE NM AND MESOSCALE
   ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE LEE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN INCREASED
   TSTM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

   WHILE NOT OVERLY STRONG...BULK SHEAR APPEARS TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
   SUPPORT SOME STORM ORGANIZATION WITH KABX VAD SAMPLING 0-6 KM BULK
   SHEAR AROUND 35 KT AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS ESTIMATING EFFECTIVE SHEAR
   AROUND 30 KT. SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH THE SEWD
   PROGRESSION OF THE VORT MAX WITH FAVORABLE ORIENTATION OF THE SHEAR
   VECTORS PERPENDICULAR TO THE STORM OUTFLOW POSSIBLY SUPPORTING SOME
   FORWARD-PROPAGATION. SOME SVR HAIL IS POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY DURING
   THE NEXT FEW HOURS WHILE A SOMEWHAT DISCRETE STORM MODE IS
   FAVORED...BUT THE PRIMARY SVR THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE DAMAGING WIND
   GUSTS AS THE MCS MOVES SEWD. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE
   SVR COVERAGE AND TRENDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR A
   POSSIBLE WW.

   ..MOSIER/MEAD.. 07/08/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   36910287 36710242 36470218 36230209 35730189 35250197
               34800223 34480266 34300390 34320448 34570524 35070559
               35710557 36240533 36670502 36830481 36900462 37020397
               36910287 

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Page last modified: July 08, 2015
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