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Mesoscale Discussion 1326
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1326
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0352 PM CDT WED JUL 08 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...EAST-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MO AND SOUTHERN IL/WESTERN
   KY/SOUTHWEST INDIANA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 082052Z - 082245Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE RISK...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A
   FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF A COUPLE OF TORNADOES/LOCALIZED WIND
   DAMAGE...MAY INCREASE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FROM
   SOUTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL MO AND SOUTHERN IL/WESTERN KY INTO SOUTHWEST
   INDIANA. INCREASING EVIDENCE FOR STRENGTHENING/SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS
   COULD PROMPT A TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...AT 20Z/3PM CDT...SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS FEATURES A
   1010 MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL MO WITH A WARM FRONT /SHARP
   BY EARLY JULY STANDARDS/ EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL MO
   /CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE ST LOUIS METRO/ INTO FAR SOUTHERN IL
   /BETWEEN CARBONDALE AND MOUNT VERNON/ AND THE OH RIVER VICINITY NEAR
   EVANSVILLE INDIANA. SURFACE-LOW-PRECEDING PRESSURE FALLS OF
   2-3MB/2HRS ARE MAXIMIZED NEAR AND NORTH OF THE ST LOUIS AREA AS THE
   WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ADVANCE NORTHWARD. 

   BROKEN CLOUD COVER HAS GENERALLY PERSISTED EVEN IN THE NEARBY WARM
   SECTOR...BUT INHIBITION CONTINUES TO ERODE WITH MODEST
   DESTABILIZATION OCCURRING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A NORTHWARD-FLUX OF
   LOWER 70S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS. EVEN WHILE THICKER/BROKEN CLOUDS
   CONTINUE TO LINGER...IT SEEMS PLAUSIBLE IF NOT PROBABLE THAT AT
   LEAST A FEW PERIPHERAL/SEMI-DISCRETE STORMS MAY DEVELOP/MATURE
   WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW/SOUTHWARD-EXTENDING
   COLD FRONT THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

   SHOULD THIS OCCUR...STRENGTHENING LOW/MID-TROPOSPHERIC WIND PROFILES
   WILL BE VERY SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST TRANSIENT SUPERCELL
   STRUCTURES...WITH TORNADO POTENTIAL MAXIMIZED NEAR THE WARM FRONT
   WHERE LOW-LEVEL WINDS/SRH ARE BACKED/MAXIMIZED RESPECTIVELY. LATEST
   WSR-88D VWP DATA FROM ST LOUIS FEATURES NEARLY 300 M2/S2 OF 0-1 KM
   SRH. INCREASING EVIDENCE FOR STRENGTHENING/SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS COULD
   PROMPT A TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OTHERWISE
   FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS.

   ..GUYER/MEAD.. 07/08/2015


   ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...

   LAT...LON   37289192 38119180 38928953 38738710 37358755 36809025
               37289192 

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Page last modified: July 08, 2015
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