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Mesoscale Discussion 1326
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1326
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1153 AM CDT WED JUL 09 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PA...NY...SRN VT...WRN CT...FAR NRN NJ

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 091653Z - 091930Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
   AFTERNOON ACROSS PA...NRN NJ...MUCH OF NY INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND. WIND
   DAMAGE SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT ALTHOUGH HAIL WILL ALSO BE
   POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CORES. WW ISSUANCE CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
   ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT FROM WRN NY
   EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS NW PA. SFC WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WERE
   GENERALLY SW TO WSWLY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F. SFC
   TEMPS HAVE ALREADY REACHED THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S F. CONTINUED
   SFC HEATING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
   MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS MOST OF THE MCD AREA. IN
   ADDITION...REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS SHOW UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES
   AND SOME SPEED SHEAR IN THE LOW-LEVELS. AS LAPSE RATES IN THE
   BOUNDARY LAYER AND CONVECTIVE COVERAGE INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS...AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP. THE THREAT
   MAY BE MAXIMIZED WITH SHORT LINE SEGMENTS AND CELL MERGERS.

   ..BROYLES/EDWARDS.. 07/09/2014


   ATTN...WFO...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...
   PBZ...CLE...

   LAT...LON   40367686 39867937 40898053 42007950 43727486 43887390
               43707323 43327279 42817268 42187300 41447423 40367686 

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Page last modified: July 09, 2014
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