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Mesoscale Discussion 1327
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1327
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1251 PM CDT WED JUL 09 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NE GA...SC...WRN NC...SRN VA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 091751Z - 091915Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF ERN
   GA...THE WRN CAROLINAS AND SRN VA. MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS
   WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. WW ISSUANCE APPEARS UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT MOVING EWD
   ACROSS THE OH VALLEY WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW LOCATED ACROSS
   MUCH OF THE SRN AND CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE
   MID TO UPPER 60S F ACROSS THE MCD AREA WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY
   DEVELOPING ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM ERN GA NNEWD ACROSS THE WRN
   CAROLINAS INTO VA. MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED AROUND 1500 J/KG ALONG MUCH
   OF THIS CORRIDOR BY RAP-V2 DATA. IN ADDITION...THE WSR-88D VWP AT
   RAONOKE VA SHOWS A UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE WITH 30 TO 40 KT OF
   FLOW ABOVE 2 KM AGL. THIS ALONG WITH STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES THIS AFTERNOON...SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL WIND-DAMAGE
   THREAT WITH CELL MERGERS AND SHORT-LINE SEGMENTS.

   ..BROYLES/EDWARDS.. 07/09/2014


   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...RNK...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...

   LAT...LON   33338129 32908234 32908312 33258360 34848360 37238115
               37687980 37387841 36607802 35337990 34548057 33338129 

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Page last modified: July 09, 2014
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