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Mesoscale Discussion 1328
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1328
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1259 PM CDT WED JUL 09 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEB...SOUTH CENTRAL SD AND
   NORTH CENTRAL KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 091759Z - 092000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ELEVATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP DURING THE
   EARLY-MID AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL SD SSEWD THROUGH CENTRAL
   NEB...WITH ISOLATED HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.  A FEW HAILSTONES
   COULD EXCEED 1-1.5 INCH IN DIAMETER...AS INDICATED BY RECENT WDSS-II
   MESH DATA IN CHERRY COUNTY.  IF STORMS CAN BECOME SURFACE-BASED
   TOWARD PEAK HEATING ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL NEB INTO NORTH-CENTRAL
   KS...THEN AN ADDITIONAL THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE
   POSSIBLE...AND WW ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED.

   DISCUSSION...TIME LAPSE OF MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED TSTMS HAD
   CONTINUED TO DEVELOP FOR THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
   SD INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL TO CENTRAL NEB.  THIS ACTIVITY IS
   LOCATED WITHIN A ZONE OF WEAK LOW-LEVEL WAA AND DEEPER ASCENT
   ATTENDANT TO A PROGRESSIVE MID-LEVEL IMPULSE...CURRENTLY MOVING SEWD
   THROUGH WRN/CENTRAL NEB PER MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY.  MODIFIED 12Z
   LBF SOUNDING FOR SURFACE TEMP/DEWPOINT OF 82F/58F INDICATED A
   REDUCTION IN MLCIN...THOUGH THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS CAPPED
   SUGGESTING THESE STORMS ARE ELEVATED.  OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SHOWED
   THESE STORMS ARE TRACKING SSEWD ALONG THE ERN PORTION OF THE EML. 
   EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KT IS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AS
   15-20 KT SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO 35 KT AT 500 MB.  THESE FACTORS
   SUPPORT A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER CELLS TO PRODUCE
   HAIL...SOME EXCEEDING 1-1.5 INCH.

   GREATER CONCERN AND POTENTIAL NEED FOR A WATCH THIS AFTERNOON WILL
   BE AS THESE STORMS DEVELOP FARTHER SSEWD INTO SRN NEB AND NRN KS. 
   THERE...STRONGER DIABATIC HEATING WILL RESULT IN A WELL-MIXED
   BOUNDARY LAYER WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING STEEP SFC-3 KM
   LAPSE RATES /AROUND 9.8 C PER KM/ AND LARGE SURFACE DEWPOINT
   DEPRESSIONS AROUND 40 DEGREES F...ENHANCING THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING
   WINDS.  FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THE MIDLEVEL IMPULSE WILL SUPPORT
   TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITH SSEWD EXTENT...SUCH THAT A WW MAY BE NEEDED.

   ..PETERS/EDWARDS.. 07/09/2014


   ATTN...WFO...TOP...GID...LBF...UNR...GLD...

   LAT...LON   39969760 39289812 39209907 39239971 39409997 39950014
               41790109 42650132 43130124 43430091 43229987 42629911
               41859851 40839794 39969760 

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Page last modified: July 09, 2014
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