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Mesoscale Discussion 1328
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MD 1328 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 1328
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1032 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of central/southern AZ

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 170332Z - 170530Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...An isolated risk for strong to damaging winds should
   continue across the lower terrain of central/southern AZ for the
   next few hours. This threat will very likely remain
   marginal/isolated, and watch issuance is unlikely.

   DISCUSSION...Scattered convection developed into a short line
   earlier this afternoon across the higher terrain of northeastern AZ,
   moving southwestward through the evening across the Painted Desert
   and towards the Mogollon Rim with mid-level northeasterly flow.
   Based on recent radar trends, it now appears likely this line of
   thunderstorms will move across the higher terrain of central AZ and
   into the lower elevations of central/southern AZ over the next
   several hours, including the Phoenix metro area. Although convective
   inhibition will continue to increase this evening with the loss of
   daytime heating, a well-mixed and deep boundary layer sampled by the
   00Z PHX sounding will support an isolated threat for strong to
   damaging downdraft winds for at least the next several hours with
   ongoing convection moving towards the Phoenix metro from the
   northeast. The overall severe threat should be tempered by the lack
   of stronger instability, increasing MLCIN, and generally weak shear.
   Accordingly, watch issuance is not expected.

   ..Gleason/Edwards.. 07/17/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   34511243 34391140 34111072 33391093 32931161 32531240
               32401281 32561332 33401364 34191330 34511243 

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