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Mesoscale Discussion 1328
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1328
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0528 PM CDT WED JUL 08 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN KY...AND FAR SRN IND

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 082228Z - 090000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY POSE A RISK
   FOR A COUPLE OF STRONG WIND GUSTS AND/OR A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO THIS
   EVENING. HOWEVER...WW ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST WSR-88D MOSAIC ILLUSTRATES SEVERAL STRONG
   THUNDERSTORMS FROM APPROX BRECKENRIDGE COUNTY SEWD TO TAYLOR COUNTY
   IN KY. THIS CONVECTION IS LIKELY DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO WEAK
   FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM THE GLANCING INFLUENCE OF AN IMPULSE PASSING
   TO THE NORTH.

   WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR NEAR/SOUTH OF THE OH VALLEY...SFC HEATING AND
   A MOIST AIR MASS /E.G. MEAN MIXING RATIOS NEAR 15 G PER KG/ HAVE
   CONTRIBUTED TO AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE...DESPITE FAIRLY WEAK
   LAPSE RATES ALOFT. FURTHERMORE...THE LOW-MID-LEVEL KINEMATIC
   ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTS SOME UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION...WITH RECENT KLVX
   VWP DATA INDICATING AROUND 30-35 KTS OF 3-KM FLOW AND SOME SLIGHT
   VEERING WITH HEIGHT. INDEED...A FEW CELLS HAVE DISPLAYED WEAK
   ROTATION OVER THE LAST HOUR...WITH OCCASIONAL MODEST TBSS SIGNATURES
   ALOFT. CONSIDERING THE WARM/MOIST LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND
   POTENTIAL FOR VERTICAL MOMENTUM TRANSFER/PRECIP LOADING...ISOLATED
   STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS IN
   STRONGER CONVECTION. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED VEERING PROFILE...THE
   POTENTIAL MAY ALSO EXIST FOR A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO AS WELL.
   HOWEVER...THE LIMITED NATURE OF THE THREAT SHOULD PRECLUDE WW
   ISSUANCE...AND STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF INSOLATION
   LATER THIS EVENING.

   ..PICCA/EDWARDS.. 07/08/2015


   ATTN...WFO...JKL...LMK...PAH...

   LAT...LON   37658664 37948677 38258677 38408578 38188484 37888450
               37258468 36818503 36898583 37268634 37658664 

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Page last modified: July 09, 2015
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