|Mesoscale Discussion 1328|
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Mesoscale Discussion 1328
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1032 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017
Areas affected...Portions of central/southern AZ
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 170332Z - 170530Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...An isolated risk for strong to damaging winds should
continue across the lower terrain of central/southern AZ for the
next few hours. This threat will very likely remain
marginal/isolated, and watch issuance is unlikely.
DISCUSSION...Scattered convection developed into a short line
earlier this afternoon across the higher terrain of northeastern AZ,
moving southwestward through the evening across the Painted Desert
and towards the Mogollon Rim with mid-level northeasterly flow.
Based on recent radar trends, it now appears likely this line of
thunderstorms will move across the higher terrain of central AZ and
into the lower elevations of central/southern AZ over the next
several hours, including the Phoenix metro area. Although convective
inhibition will continue to increase this evening with the loss of
daytime heating, a well-mixed and deep boundary layer sampled by the
00Z PHX sounding will support an isolated threat for strong to
damaging downdraft winds for at least the next several hours with
ongoing convection moving towards the Phoenix metro from the
northeast. The overall severe threat should be tempered by the lack
of stronger instability, increasing MLCIN, and generally weak shear.
Accordingly, watch issuance is not expected.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 34511243 34391140 34111072 33391093 32931161 32531240
32401281 32561332 33401364 34191330 34511243
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