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Mesoscale Discussion 1329
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MD 1329 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 1329
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1114 AM CDT Mon Jul 17 2017

   Areas affected...Central and eastern Pennsylvania...much of New
   York...Much of Vermont...western New Hampshire...far western
   Massachusetts...and far northwestern New Jersey

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 171614Z - 171815Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Band of convection are ongoing in northwestern portions of
   the discussion area, and a general increase is expected through the
   afternoon hours.  A WW may be needed later in the afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...An extensive, broken band of convection is gradually
   increasing in intensity across northern and central New York State,
   with more isolated convection increasing ahead of this band across
   the remainder of the discussion area.  Northern portions of this
   band have begun to forward propagate eastward and should reach
   western Vermont within the next hour.  These storms are in an
   environment characterized by sufficient (30-35 kt) deep shear for
   some storm organization along with substantial surface heating
   within the pre-convective airmass, fostering moderate instability
   (around 1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE in northeastern New York increasing to
   around 3000 J/kg MUCAPE in central Pennsylvania).  A fairly
   expansive (and increasingly agitated) cumulus field exists
   downstream of ongoing convection, and model point forecast soundings
   indicate minimal convective inhibition, which should allow for a
   continued (diurnally driven) increase in convective coverage and
   intensity this afternoon.

   Convective trends will be monitored for an evolving
   isolated-to-scattered wind damage threat, which may necessitate a
   severe thunderstorm watch issuance later this afternoon.

   ..Cook/Hart.. 07/17/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   39857755 40217823 40827854 41707833 42027816 42577714
               43697518 44347421 44787353 45007302 45037224 44997150
               44567125 43477193 42677275 41667364 40647474 39987626

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