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Mesoscale Discussion 1329
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1329
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0223 PM CDT WED JUL 09 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN VA...MD...DE...SRN NJ...FAR SE PA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 091923Z - 092100Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS CELLS
   MOVE EWD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON. THE SEVERE THREAT
   SHOULD REMAIN TOO ISOLATED TO WARRANT WW ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
   EXTENDING SWD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE CAROLINAS.
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING NEAR THE SFC TROUGH WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS
   ARE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S F AND MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED IN THE
   1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE. IN ADDITION...THE WSR-88D VWP AT BALTIMORE
   MD SHOWS 35 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR AND UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS ABOVE 1 KM
   AGL. THIS WIND PROFILE ALONG WITH STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES...SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR MARGINALLY-SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITH
   THE MORE INTENSE MULTICELLS. THE WIND-DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD PEAK LATE
   THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CYCLE.

   ..BROYLES/EDWARDS.. 07/09/2014


   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...

   LAT...LON   39847702 38557834 37857856 37457799 37547647 39327491
               40007538 40147621 39847702 

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Page last modified: July 09, 2014
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