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Mesoscale Discussion 1329
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1329
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0700 PM CDT WED JUL 08 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NERN AR AND FAR SERN MO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 090000Z - 090200Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS...AS WELL AS A
   BRIEF TORNADO...CONTINUES ACROSS THE MCD AREA. HOWEVER...THE LIMITED
   NATURE OF THE THREAT SHOULD PRECLUDE WATCH ISSUANCE THIS EVENING.

   DISCUSSION...SMALL CLUSTERS/BOWING SEGMENTS CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN AR THIS EVENING...LIKELY AUGMENTED BY FORCING
   FOR ASCENT FROM A WEAK IMPULSE ALOFT CURRENTLY TRANSLATING ACROSS
   THE OZARKS. AMPLE LOW/MID-LEVEL SWLY FLOW ON THE ORDER OF 40-50 KTS
   /GENERALLY PARALLEL TO THE AFOREMENTIONED LINEAR SEGMENTS/ SHOULD
   MAINTAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE GUSTS OVER
   THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...WHILE THE FLOW IS LARGELY
   UNIDIRECTIONAL /EVIDENT IN REGIONAL VWP DATA/...A VERY MOIST
   LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO WITH ANY
   LINE-EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...WITH BETTER
   FORCING FOR ASCENT PROGRESSING NE...AND MORE BACKED SFC FLOW LOCATED
   FARTHER N CLOSER TO THE LOW AND WARM FRONT...THE SEVERE THREAT
   SHOULD REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE.

   ..PICCA/EDWARDS.. 07/09/2015


   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...

   LAT...LON   35878983 35469034 35159123 35079181 35069256 35269285
               35429286 35939266 36489219 36478972 35878983 

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Page last modified: July 09, 2015
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