|Mesoscale Discussion 1330|
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Mesoscale Discussion 1330
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0237 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2017
Areas affected...Far northeastern Pennsylvania...central/eastern New
York...and much of Vermont
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 417...
Valid 171937Z - 172030Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 417
SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across much of WW 417.
DISCUSSION...Storms have increased as anticipated - and congealed
into several forward-propagating linear segments with a history of
isolated hail and a few wind gusts. The airmass ahead of storms is
characterized by weak to moderate instability (around 1000 J/kg
MUCAPE in Vermont increasing to 3000 J/kg in eastern Pennsylvania)
along with marginal, but sufficient, deep shear for organized
convection. Storms will generally migrate east/northeastward for the
remainder of the afternoon and continue to pose at least an isolated
damaging wind/hail threat. Storms should weaken after dark with the
onset of nocturnal boundary-layer cooling.
Areas on the northern and western peripheries of WW 417 have
experienced substantial overturning from ongoing convection. Weaker
storms are present in these areas that may pose a threat for small
hail, although the bulk of the severe threat should reside with more
unstable low-level conditions downstream.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 43087652 43487591 44047495 44557356 44977264 45037177
44797151 44137211 43307238 42767289 42227391 41687477
41217548 41027591 41097655 41437706 41807735 42487699
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