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Mesoscale Discussion 1332
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1332
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0444 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of the lower Colorado Valley

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 172144Z - 172315Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Clusters of storms will continue to develop across the
   region through the evening. Isolated damaging-wind gusts will be the
   main threat, but storms should remain too disorganized to warrant a
   watch.

   DISCUSSION...Scattered convection has blossomed across the region
   this afternoon, aided by ample heating along higher terrain and
   adequate boundary-layer moisture. Furthermore, modified for current
   surface conditions, the 12Z VEF RAOB suggests upwards of 2000 J/kg
   of MLCAPE and a very deep/well-mixed boundary layer are present
   across the region. Therefore, as storms slowly progress across
   lower-elevation desert floors, stronger cores will be capable of a
   few instances of damaging downburst winds. However, very weak
   tropospheric flow will ensure that storms remain disorganized, with
   propagation guided by advancing/merging cold pools. As such, watch
   issuance is not expected.

   ..Picca/Edwards.. 07/17/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FGZ...SLC...PSR...VEF...

   LAT...LON   35221547 37041556 37671519 37711440 37331359 35821290
               34441271 33901288 33621419 33881473 34421507 35221547 

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Page last modified: July 17, 2017
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