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Mesoscale Discussion 1334
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1334
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0810 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHWEST MN...FAR EASTERN ND

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 399...

   VALID 200110Z - 200245Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 399
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...PRIMARY SEVERE RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
   SHOULD PERSIST WITH A LONG-LIVED SUPERCELL ALONG THE RED RIVER. A
   SEVERE STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE TO THE EAST AND WEST OF THIS
   CELL...BUT AN ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...LONG-LIVED SUPERCELL NEAR GRAND FORKS WITH A HISTORY OF
   SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL IS GENERALLY TRACKING IN A
   SOUTH-SOUTHEAST MOTION ALONG THE RED RIVER. UPSTREAM CONVECTION HAS
   FAILED TO INTENSIFY THUS FAR...WHILE DOWNSHEAR CONVECTION HAS
   INCREASED INTO NORTHWEST MN. PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER BUOYANCY WITH
   EASTERN EXTENT PER 00Z INL/MPX RAOBS SUGGEST DOWNSHEAR STORMS SHOULD
   HAVE A MORE MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL/WIND RISK. MEANWHILE...UPSHEAR
   CONVECTION COULD STILL INTENSIFY AS MVX VWP DATA HAS SAMPLED AN
   INCREASE IN 1-KM AGL SOUTHWESTERLIES WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE WAA ATOP
   THE MAIN SUPERCELL OUTFLOW. COUNTIES WEST OF THIS OUTFLOW ARE
   UNLIKELY TO SEE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND COULD BE CLEARED PRIOR TO
   WW EXPIRATION.

   ..GRAMS.. 07/20/2016


   ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...

   LAT...LON   47939820 48239804 48299734 48249618 48119521 47889467
               47539443 47179437 46859466 46729529 46699617 46799681
               47059773 47559816 47939820 

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Page last modified: July 20, 2016
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