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Mesoscale Discussion 1335
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1335
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1140 PM CDT WED JUL 08 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL KY...FAR SRN INDIANA

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 396...

   VALID 090440Z - 090545Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 396 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY A
   BRIEF TORNADO MAY PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT. CONVECTIVE
   TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A LOWER-END PROBABILITY /ABOUT 30
   PERCENT/ OF WW ISSUANCE BEYOND 06Z EXPIRATION OF WW 396.

   DISCUSSION...QLCS EXTENDING ACROSS PARTS OF FAR SRN IL TO FAR WRN KY
   IS PROGRESSING E AT ABOUT 40 KT. THIS FORWARD SPEED IS CONSISTENT
   WITH MEASURED WIND GUSTS IN THE PAH AREA OF 35-40 KT AND MAY BE
   SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED TREE DAMAGE. A BRIEF TORNADO IS
   STILL POSSIBLE GIVEN 0-1 KM SHEAR AROUND 40 KT PER AREA VWP
   DATA...PARTICULARLY WHERE THE NRN PORTION OF THE QLCS INTERSECTS
   WEAK CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FROM LEADING CONVECTION NEAR THE CONFLUENCE
   OF THE OHIO/WABASH RIVERS. HOWEVER...THIS RISK MAY BE SHORT-LIVED AS
   THE QLCS OVERTAKES THE LEADING CONVECTION AND GIVEN ITS SWD
   DISPLACEMENT FROM A 1010 MB SURFACE CYCLONE OVER CNTRL IL AND
   ATTENDANT WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE. NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN PRESENCE OF
   UPPER 70S SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LOWER/MIDDLE 70S DEW POINTS...THE
   RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS MAY PERSIST UNTIL CONVECTION
   PROGRESSES INTO A COOLER/MORE STABLE AIR MASS OVER CNTRL/ERN KY.

   ..GRAMS.. 07/09/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...

   LAT...LON   37928793 38158717 38288650 38268621 38058602 37638589
               37308595 36998624 36638714 36558810 36608848 37018828
               37368821 37928793 

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Page last modified: July 09, 2015
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