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Mesoscale Discussion 1336
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1336
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1153 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN VA...ERN NC...ERN SC

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 101653Z - 101800Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE GRADUALLY DEVELOPING/INTENSIFYING FROM
   SERN VA INTO ERN SC.  HAIL/WIND MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST
   ACTIVITY.  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE WARRANTED FOR THIS
   REGION.

   DISCUSSION...STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING IS NOTED ACROSS THE
   CAROLINA COASTAL PLAINS WITH SFC-3KM LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 8 C/KM
   AT 16Z..  EXPANDING/DEEPENING CU FIELD IS NOW OBSERVED ACROSS ERN SC
   INTO PORTIONS OF COASTAL NC IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THICKER CLOUD
   CANOPY AND IT APPEARS THIS CONVECTION WILL SOON BEGIN TO PRODUCE
   LIGHTNING.  FARTHER NORTH...ROBUST THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY
   EVOLVED ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER ALONG LEADING EDGE OF AFOREMENTIONED
   STEEP LAPSE RATES/MORE BUOYANT AIRMASS.  WDSSII MESH ALGORITHM
   SUGGESTS AT LEAST GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL IS NOTED WITH TSTM CLUSTER OVER
   SOUTHAMPTON COUNTY VA.  GIVEN THE MODEST SWLY FLOW AT MID LEVELS IT
   APPEARS MULTI-CELL UPDRAFTS MAY CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE.

   ..DARROW/WEISS.. 07/10/2014


   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CAE...

   LAT...LON   34068018 36287826 36937715 37097573 35967588 33367885
               34068018 

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Page last modified: July 10, 2014
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