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Mesoscale Discussion 1336
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1336
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0411 AM CDT THU JUL 09 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WESTERN INTO CENTRAL KY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 090911Z - 091145Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
   SEVERAL HOURS /THROUGH ABOUT 12-13Z/ ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN INTO
   CENTRAL KY AS A LINE OF STORMS MOVES TO THE EAST ACROSS THIS REGION.
   GIVEN THE EXPECTED LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER...A SEVERE
   TSTM WATCH IS NOT WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

   DISCUSSION...RADAR TRENDS...SINCE 0820-0830Z...INDICATED AN INCREASE
   IN FORWARD SPEED AT 40-45 KT FOR A PORTION OF A LINE OF STORMS
   ACROSS TRIGG TO HOPKINS COUNTIES.  THESE STORMS APPEARED TO HAVE
   INCREASED IN INTENSITY SOME AS THEY MOVED EWD INTO THE NRN EXTENT OF
   AN INSTABILITY CORRIDOR...WHICH EXTENDS INTO CENTRAL KY.  FORCING
   FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO WEAK LOW-LEVEL WAA AND A TRANSIENT LOWER OH
   VALLEY MIDLEVEL IMPULSE SHOULD MAINTAIN THIS EWD MOVING MCS THROUGH
   THE EARLY MORNING.  DESPITE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE STRENGTH OF
   NEAR SURFACE-BASED STABILIZATION...50-KT WLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS /1-3 KM
   AGL/ PER PAH/HPX VADS WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR MOMENTUM
   TRANSFER TO THE SURFACE.  THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS
   SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE BETWEEN 12-15Z AS STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT
   WITH THE MIDLEVEL IMPULSE MOVES DOWNSTREAM INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY
   AND THE WLY LLJ WEAKENS ACROSS KY.

   ..PETERS/CORFIDI.. 07/09/2015


   ATTN...WFO...JKL...LMK...PAH...

   LAT...LON   36808777 37538696 37638674 37888528 37828477 37288440
               36868491 36788579 36808777 

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Page last modified: July 09, 2015
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