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Mesoscale Discussion 1337
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1337
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1027 AM CDT THU JUL 09 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...WV/SOUTHEAST OH INTO WESTERN PA/FAR WESTERN MD

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 091527Z - 091730Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING THE RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND
   POSSIBLY A TORNADO IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH EARLY
   AFTERNOON ACROSS WV/FAR SOUTHEAST OH INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF PA/MD.
   MONITORING FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH ISSUANCE AS EARLY AS MIDDAY/EARLY
   AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION...WITH A WATCH ISSUANCE
   BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY WITH EASTWARD EXTENT INTO PA/MD LATER
   TODAY.

   DISCUSSION...REGIONAL 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS AND MORE CONTEMPORARY
   WSR-88D VWP DATA SAMPLE A SEASONALLY STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD
   OVER THE OH VALLEY...HIGHLIGHTED BY AS MUCH AS 40-50 KT
   WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WITHIN THE LOWEST 2-5 KM AGL ASSOCIATED
   WITH AN EASTWARD-MOVING VORT MAX/MCV. A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR
   LAKE ERIE AT 15Z WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD TODAY WHILE A TRAILING COLD
   FRONT ALSO MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDDLE/UPPER OH VALLEY. 

   WITHIN THE PRE-COLD FRONT WARM SECTOR...ONE RELATIVELY LOW-TOPPED
   UPDRAFT/THUNDERSTORM HAS ALREADY EXHIBITED GRADUAL SIGNS OF
   INTENSIFICATION ACROSS FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST OH AS OF 15Z.
   ALTHOUGH SOME CLOUD BILLOWS /IMPLICATIONS OF STABILITY/ STILL
   PERSIST AHEAD OF THIS STORM...THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS WV/SOUTHEAST OH
   INTO NEARBY SOUTHWEST PA/WESTERN MD CONTINUES TO STEADILY WARM IN
   CONJUNCTION WITH LOWER 70S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS. THUS...INCREASING
   STORM DEVELOPMENT/INTENSIFICATION IS PROBABLE INTO THE AFTERNOON
   INTO WV AND NEARBY PA/MD. A COLLOCATED BELT OF STRENGTHENING WINDS
   AND WEAK TO MODERATE BUOYANCY WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORM
   MODES INCLUDING FAST-MOVING LINE SEGMENTS/BOWS AND THE POSSIBILITY
   OF AT LEAST SOME WEAK/TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF WIND DAMAGE
   AND POTENTIALLY SOME TORNADO RISK.

   ..GUYER/MEAD.. 07/09/2015


   ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...

   LAT...LON   38998174 40118130 40728040 40617910 38737917 37908105
               38998174 

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Page last modified: July 09, 2015
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