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Mesoscale Discussion 1337
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1337
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0106 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NW AZ...SE CA...SE NV...SW UT

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 101806Z - 101930Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL
   CONTINUE TO DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE THREAT
   SHOULD BE MARGINAL AND WW ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A TONGUE OF LOW-LEVEL
   MOISTURE FROM SW AZ EXTENDING NWD ALONG THE CO RIVER VALLEY INTO SRN
   NV. SFC DEWPOINTS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR ARE IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER
   60S F WITH MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATING MLCAPE IN THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG
   RANGE. IN ADDITION...0-3 KM LAPSE RATES HAVE INCREASED INTO THE 7.5
   TO 8.0 C/KM RANGE ACCORDING TO RAP-V2 DATA. THE STEEP LAPSE RATES
   SHOULD HELP DOWNDRAFTS ACCELERATE AS PULSE STORMS DEVELOP OVER THE
   NEXT FEW HOURS. A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE
   POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE PULSE STORMS.

   ..BROYLES/WEISS.. 07/10/2014


   ATTN...WFO...FGZ...SLC...VEF...LKN...

   LAT...LON   37191601 36071564 35211545 34551525 34451441 35261271
               36231244 37501338 38631389 38671505 37191601 

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Page last modified: July 10, 2014
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