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Mesoscale Discussion 1338
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1338
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1115 AM CDT THU JUL 09 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/EASTERN KY INTO SOUTHERN WV/FAR WESTERN WV

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 091615Z - 091845Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY INTENSIFY/SPREAD EASTWARD
   INITIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN KY...INTO SOUTHERN WV/FAR WESTERN
   VA THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
   LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

   DISCUSSION...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...MULTIPLE BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS
   HAVE SHOWN SOME INITIAL SIGNS OF INCREASING
   ORGANIZATION/INTENSIFICATION ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KY AS OF
   16Z. THIS DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING WITHIN A ZONE OF PRE-FRONTAL
   DIFFERENTIAL CLOUD COVER/HEATING...WHERE NEAR 80/LOWER 80S F SURFACE
   TEMPERATURES AND LOWER 70S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE ALREADY LEADING
   TO NEGLIGIBLE INHIBITION WITH 1000+ J/KG MLCAPE AND DEEPENING CU
   FIELD. THE REGION WILL GENERALLY BE REMOVED FROM THE STRONGER
   LARGE-SCALE FORCING/VERTICAL SHEAR TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST.
   HOWEVER...A MODERATELY STRONG BELT OF MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES...WITH
   40-50 KT BETWEEN 2-6 KM AGL EVIDENT FROM JKL/LVX/HPX WSR-88D VWP
   DATA...WILL SUPPORT RELATIVELY FAST/EASTWARD-MOVING LINE
   SEGMENTS/ORGANIZED LINEAR STRUCTURES WITH BOWING SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF
   WIND DAMAGE AS STORMS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY MATURE/INTENSIFY THIS
   AFTERNOON.

   ..GUYER/MEAD.. 07/09/2015


   ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...

   LAT...LON   36788665 37398644 38138144 37258151 36718262 36628598
               36788665 

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Page last modified: July 09, 2015
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