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Mesoscale Discussion 1339
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1339
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0337 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WY...SW SD...WRN NEB

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 102037Z - 102200Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS ERN WY...SW
   SD...WRN NEB AND NERN CO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW DAMAGING WIND
   GUSTS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS CELLS GRADUALLY
   INTENSIFY. WW ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LEE TROUGH ACROSS ERN
   MT SWD INTO ERN WY AND ERN CO. SFC DEWPOINTS GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM
   NEAR 50 F IN ERN WY AND NERN CO TO THE MIDDLE 60S F IN WRN SD AND
   WCNTRL NEB. IN RESPONSE TO SFC HEATING...A CORRIDOR OF MODERATE
   INSTABILITY IS ALREADY IN PLACE FROM NW KS NWD THROUGH CNTRL NEB
   INTO SRN SD WHERE MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED IN THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG
   RANGE. THUNDERSTORMS ARE GRADUALLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE TO THE
   WEST OF THE STRONGER INSTABILITY ALONG THE LEE TROUGH. SHORT-TERM
   FORECASTS MOVE THIS CONVECTION TOWARD THE INSTABILITY AXIS LATE THIS
   AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION. IN
   ADDITION...THE WSR-88D VWP AT RAPID CITY SD SHOWS A 0-6 KM SHEAR OF
   35 KT WHICH APPEARS REPRESENTATIVE OF THE NRN HALF OF THE MCD AREA.
   THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED
   SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH LARGE HAIL WHERE INSTABILITY IS LOCALLY
   MAXIMIZED. OTHER CELLS SHOULD REMAIN MULTICELLULAR BUT COULD STILL
   HAVE AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT. AT THIS POINT...UNCERTAINTY
   STILL EXISTS CONCERNING THE MAGNITUDE OF THE THREAT DUE TO THE LACK
   OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IN THE
   CNTRL HIGH PLAINS.

   ..BROYLES/WEISS.. 07/10/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   44570297 44390213 43920190 41820235 41140276 40920369
               41290479 42940566 44130460 44570297 

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Page last modified: July 10, 2014
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