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Mesoscale Discussion 1340
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1340
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0152 PM CDT THU JUL 09 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL CA /NRN SIERRA/...CNTRL NV

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 091852Z - 092045Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TSTM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
   ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL POSSIBLE. SVR THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
   REMAIN TOO ISOLATED FOR A WW.

   DISCUSSION...TSTM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE EARLY
   AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING DESTABILIZES THE AIRMASS AND A
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH THE LARGE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER
   CNTRL CA AND INTO THE WRN GREAT BASIN. 

   REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY HAS SHOWN A FEW STRONG STORMS NEAR RENO AS
   WELL AS ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY FARTHER E ACROSS CNTRL NV INCREASING IN
   COVERAGE AND STRENGTH. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN
   EXPANSIVE CU FIELD ACROSS CNTRL NV INDICATIVE OF INCREASED MID-LEVEL
   MOISTURE AND BROAD SYNOPTIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW. LINE
   OF TSTMS S OF THE MCD AREA FROM ROUGHLY MMH /IN FAR E-CNTRL CA/ SWD
   INTO THE MOHAVE DESERT LIKELY DEMARCATES AN AREA OF ENHANCED LIFT
   ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING AROUND THE UPPER LOW. THE
   CONTINUED NEWD PROGRESS OF THIS SHORTWAVE COUPLED WITH INCREASED
   MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND AT LEAST MODEST DAYTIME HEATING IS EXPECTED
   TO FOSTER CONTINUED TSTM ACTIVITY.

   DRY ADIABATIC LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL HELP PROMOTE INVERTED-V
   PROFILES WITH AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH
   THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS. ADDITIONALLY...GIVEN THE COOLING MID-LEVEL
   TEMPERATURES AND RESULTING INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL LEVEL LAPSE RATE
   AND INSTABILITY...SOME HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL
   SVR THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO MARGINAL AND ISOLATED FOR WW
   ISSUANCE.

   ..MOSIER/MEAD.. 07/09/2015


   ATTN...WFO...VEF...LKN...REV...HNX...STO...

   LAT...LON   39872044 40221967 40661826 40931653 41001501 40771462
               40401448 40301443 39991450 39831467 39551500 39271535
               38981604 38781646 38631702 38151867 38161971 38302019
               38502051 39182079 39602068 39872044 

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Page last modified: July 09, 2015
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