Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 1340
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 1340 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1340
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0507 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SE OK...W-CNTRL AR

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 102207Z - 110000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED/BRIEF SVR TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM CNTRL OK SEWD
   INTO W-CNTRL AR AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH AN UNSTABLE
   AIRMASS. ISOLATED AND MARGINAL NATURE OF THE SVR THREAT IS EXPECTED
   TO PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW.

   DISCUSSION...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REVEAL A CORRIDOR OF BETTER
   BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM OKC SWWD TO DEQ. AS A
   RESULT...ENVIRONMENT FROM CNTRL OK SEWD INTO W-CNTRL AR IS
   MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS ESTIMATING MLCAPE AROUND
   1500-2000 J PER KG AND NO CINH. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM PERSISTENT
   TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS NE OK IS PROGRESSING SWWD TOWARDS THIS CORRIDOR
   OF INSTABILITY...ACTING AS THE IMPETUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION
   OVER E-CNTRL OK. 

   ENVIRONMENT IS WEAKLY SHEARED -- TLX VAD INDICATES LESS THAN 30 KT
   OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR -- WITH MAINLY PULSE CONVECTION EXPECTED. GIVEN
   THE AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...PRIMARY THREAT IS LIKELY
   DAMAGING WIND GUSTS DRIVEN BY PRECIPITATION LOADING. SOME BRIEF
   SMALL HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. OVERALL SVR THREAT IS ANTICIPATED TO BE
   BRIEF AND ISOLATED...LIKELY PRECLUDING THE NEED FOR A WATCH.

   ..MOSIER/CORFIDI.. 07/10/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...OUN...

   LAT...LON   35809712 36149795 35939822 35139806 34649751 34239654
               34069587 33899520 33699434 33719365 33799338 34039330
               34359332 34549353 34709407 35109571 35549677 35809712 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: July 11, 2014
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities