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Mesoscale Discussion 1342
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1342
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0313 PM CDT THU JUL 09 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NE/E-CNTRL NM...WRN TX/OK PANHANDLES

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 092013Z - 092215Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TSTM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   NE/E-CNTRL NM AND THE WRN TX/OK PANHANDLES DURING THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS. A WW MAY BE NEEDED TO COVER THE ANTICIPATED SVR THREAT.

   DISCUSSION...RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A CONTINUED
   WWD/NWWD PUSH OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WITH
   DHT...CVS...AND HRX NOW REPORTING DEWPOINTS OF 63...66...AND 67 DEG
   F...RESPECTIVELY. MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES HAVE ALLOWED
   FOR SUFFICIENT ISOLATION WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S ACROSS THE
   MUCH OF THE AREA. THESE SURFACE CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH MODEST
   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 DEG C PER KM ARE RESULTING IN
   MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY WITH MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATING MLCAPE
   OVER 2000 J PER KG. CONTINUED HEATING WITH ACT TO FURTHER INCREASE
   INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION.

   CURRENT KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT IS NOT ALL THAT FAVORABLE FOR
   SUPERCELLS WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR LESS THAN 30 KT AND EFFECTIVE BULK
   SHEAR AROUND 20 TO 25 KT. HOWEVER...SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS
   A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING ACROSS THE AZ/NM BORDER CONTINUES EWD.
   THIS SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO PROVIDE MORE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT TO AUGMENT
   MESOSCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT EXPECTED ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND
   THE LEE TROUGH. 

   THE RESULT OF ALL THESE FACTORS WILL BE INCREASED TSTM ACTIVITY
   ACROSS NE/E-CNTRL NM AND THE WRN TX/OK PANHANDLES DURING THE NEXT
   FEW HOURS. SOME SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A RESULTING HAIL AND
   DAMAGING WIND THREAT. GIVEN THE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE
   EXPECTED...AMALGAMATION ALONG COOL POOLS IS POSSIBLE WITH THE
   RESULTING BOWING SEGMENTS FAVORING A CONTINUED WIND DAMAGE THREAT. A
   WW MAY BE NEEDED TO COVER THE EXPECTED SVR THREAT.

   ..MOSIER/MEAD.. 07/09/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   34650121 34340124 33610123 33400146 33210201 33330302
               33790399 34730434 36350470 36920432 37150371 36970260
               36540179 36310154 35830137 35410131 34650121 

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Page last modified: July 09, 2015
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