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Mesoscale Discussion 1343
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1343
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0326 PM CDT THU JUL 09 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST OK AND SOUTHERN MO/NORTHERN AR

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 092026Z - 092230Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE AND/OR A BRIEF
   TORNADO WILL EXIST WITHIN A CORRIDOR FROM NORTHEAST OK INTO FAR
   SOUTHERN MO/FAR NORTHERN AR THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
   EARLY/MID-EVENING. A WATCH ISSUANCE CURRENTLY APPEARS UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...MULTIPLE BANDS OF STORMS WITH A FEW PERIPHERAL
   SEMI-DISCRETE STORMS...INCLUDING AT LEAST ONE STORM WITH WEAK
   SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS ACROSS FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL MO...CONTINUE TO
   MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AS OF 2015Z WITH SOME GRADUAL
   INTENSIFICATION FROM NORTHEAST OK INTO FAR SOUTHERN MO/NORTHERN AR.
   THIS DEVELOPMENT IS SEMI-FOCUSED NEAR/AHEAD OF A VORT MAX/REMNANT
   MCV...AND ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOW/S ACROSS OK AND OTHERWISE NEAR AN
   EFFECTIVE FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MO.
   WHILE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK...A MODESTLY WARM BOUNDARY
   LAYER /SEMI-COOL BY JULY STANDARDS/ IS CONTRIBUTING TO WEAK
   INHIBITION AND APPROXIMATELY 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE IN THE PRESENCE OF
   LOWER 70S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS.

   RELATED TO THE MCV/VORT MAX...AN ENHANCED BELT OF LOW/MID-LEVEL
   WINDS EXISTS NEAR THE EFFECTIVE FRONTAL CORRIDOR...WITH 30-40 KT
   SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 2-6 KM AS SAMPLED BY WSR-88D VWP DATA
   FROM OKLAHOMA CITY/TULSA AND SPRINGFIELD MO. IN PARTICULAR...LATEST
   TULSA WSR-88D VWP DATA FEATURES NEARLY 300 M2/S2 0-1 KM SRH. OVERALL
   SCENARIO SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST A FEW POTENTIALLY SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR...INCLUDING A MIXED-MODE MODE OF
   BANDS/LINEAR SEGMENTS AND POTENTIALLY SOME SEMI-DISCRETE/EMBEDDED
   SUPERCELLS. A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE AND/OR
   A BRIEF TORNADO THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY/MID-EVENING.

   ..GUYER/MEAD.. 07/09/2015


   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...

   LAT...LON   35819644 36539575 36879345 37469248 37598991 36668977
               36179281 35299519 35819644 

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Page last modified: July 09, 2015
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