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Mesoscale Discussion 1343
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1343
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0559 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NEB...NEB PANHANDLE...FAR NE CO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 112259Z - 120100Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ONGOING TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WRN NEB PANHANDLE AND FAR
   NE CO IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AND PERHAPS INCREASE IN COVERAGE. A
   PROGRESSIVELY MORE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE EXISTS E OF THIS CURRENT
   ACTIVITY WITH SOME DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES EWD.
   TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POTENTIAL WW.

   DISCUSSION...TSTMS ACROSS THE WRN NEB PANHANDLE AND NE CO HAVE
   GRADUALLY STRENGTHENED OVER THE PAST HOUR. ENVIRONMENT IS WEAKLY
   SHEARED WITH STORM MOTION CURRENTLY DOMINATED BY FORWARD-PROPAGATION
   ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. BULK SHEAR MAY INCREASE AS A SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO SW WY CONTINUES NEWD BUT OVERALL 0-6 KM
   BULK SHEAR WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 40 KT. DESPITE THIS LACK OF
   SHEAR...SOME STORM ORGANIZATION IS POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY IF STORM
   COVERAGE INCREASES BUT CONFIDENCE IN UPSCALE GROWTH IS LOW. 

   ENVIRONMENT DOWNSTREAM OF THE CURRENT TSTM ACTIVITY IS CHARACTERIZED
   BY TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S
   TO LOW 70S...AND MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J
   PER KG/. SEVERAL SURFACE BOUNDARIES ALSO EXIST WITHIN THIS REGION.
   AS A RESULT...STRONG TO SVR STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ARE
   POSSIBLE...EVEN IF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY DOES NOT EXPERIENCE UPSCALE
   GROWTH. 

   UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE OVERALL PROGRESSION OF THE CONVECTION IS
   SOMEWHAT HIGH...LEADING TO LOWER PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...BUT
   TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY AND A WW MAY BE NEEDED.

   ..MOSIER/CORFIDI.. 07/11/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   42120077 42680144 42860220 42780300 42350354 41130386
               39460382 39630238 40100153 40610111 41480062 42120077 

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Page last modified: July 12, 2014
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