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Mesoscale Discussion 1344
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1344
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0355 PM CDT THU JUL 09 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PA

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 397...

   VALID 092055Z - 092230Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 397 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...DAMAGING WIND/ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL CONTINUES...AND
   MAY SOMEWHAT INCREASE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS MUCH OF EAST-CENTRAL PA
   AND POSSIBLY NEARBY MARYLAND THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
   TORNADO WATCH 397 CONTINUES UNTIL 01Z.

   DISCUSSION...MODEST DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES TO OCCUR WITHIN A
   WARM/MOIST SECTOR TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE
   SOUTH-CENTRAL NY/NORTH-CENTRAL PA BORDER VICINITY AND ALONG/SOUTH OF
   A SLOW-NORTHWARD-SHIFTING WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS
   NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST PA SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NJ AS OF 20Z. WHILE
   UPDRAFT INTENSITY HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT TEMPERED BY WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES/MODEST BUOYANCY...STEADY WARMING CONTINUES TO OCCUR LATE THIS
   AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING DESTABILIZATION TO THE EAST OF THE CURRENT
   CONVECTION...WHICH MAY CONTRIBUTE TO AN UPTICK IN INTENSITY OVER THE
   NEXT FEW OURS ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL PA/NEARBY MD AND POINTS
   DOWNSTREAM...WHERE A NEW WATCH /398/ HAS BEEN RECENTLY COORDINATED.
   VARIOUS REGIONAL WSR-88D VWP PROFILES...INCLUDING CHARLESTON
   WV/STATE COLLEGE PA/BALTIMORE-WASHINGTON...CONTINUE TO SAMPLE AN
   EASTWARD-SHIFTING BELT OF STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WHICH WILL
   REMAIN QUITE FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED SUPERCELL POTENTIAL AND
   FAST-EASTWARD-MOVING LINE SEGMENTS/BOWS. DAMAGING WIND/ISOLATED
   TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL EXIST PARTICULARLY WITHIN THE EASTERN PORTION
   OF TORNADO WATCH 397.

   ..GUYER.. 07/09/2015


   ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...PBZ...

   LAT...LON   40497921 41237836 41687719 41357659 40887553 39597565
               39447595 39077622 39257726 39147828 39137904 39477963
               40497921 

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Page last modified: July 09, 2015
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