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Mesoscale Discussion 1344
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1344
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0333 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN ND...NWRN MN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 122033Z - 122130Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY FRONTAL SQUALL LINE AS IT
   PROGRESSES ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER INTO NERN ND/NWRN MN.

   DISCUSSION...A NARROW CORRIDOR OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG
   COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM SERN SK/MB...NEWD INTO NWRN ONTARIO. 
   THIS FRONTAL CONVECTION HAS GRADUALLY INCREASED IN INTENSITY WITHIN
   A MODESTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES...SFC-3KM VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 8 C/KM. 
   ADDITIONALLY...ASCENT WITHIN LEFT FRONT QUAD OF MID-LEVEL JET IS
   FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS SRN MB INTO THE UPPER RED RIVER VALLEY
   REGION BY EARLY EVENING WHICH SHOULD AID SQUALL LINE AS IT
   PROPAGATES SEWD AT 35-40KT.  LATEST THINKING IS ROBUST
   CONVECTION...LIKELY GENERATING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40KT...WILL
   SPREAD INTO NERN ND/NWRN MN BY 22Z WITH SUBSEQUENT MOVEMENT TOWARD
   THE GFK AREA BY 23Z.  AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS LATER THIS EVENING
   CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW SHOULD WANE SOMEWHAT...THOUGH SQUALL LINE MAY
   SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NRN MN BY 06Z.

   ..DARROW/HART.. 07/12/2014


   ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

   LAT...LON   49190109 49179746 49409484 48309444 47939725 48440037
               49190109 

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Page last modified: July 12, 2014
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