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Mesoscale Discussion 1345
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1345
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0348 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEB / SRN HALF OF IA / FAR NWRN MO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 122048Z - 122245Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...CONVECTIVE INITIATION TIMING REMAINS UNCLEAR BUT THE
   POTENTIAL ISOLD SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY INCREASE LATER THIS
   AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

   DISCUSSION...VISIBLE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATION TRENDS OVER THE
   PAST FEW HOURS HAVE SHOWN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CU FIELD ALONG AND
   BEHIND A COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT OVER CNTRL IA WWD INTO FAR ERN NEB. 
   CLOUD DEBRIS AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW HAVE RESULTED IN A DIFFERENTIAL
   HEATING BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM CNTRL IL ARCING WNWWD INTO W-CNTRL IA
   INTERSECTING THE FRONT.  THE AIRMASS S OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
   BOUNDARIES CONTINUES TO HEAT AND DESTABILIZE WITH TEMPS RISING
   THROUGH THE UPPER 80S AND INTO THE LOWER 90S AMIDST DEWPOINTS IN THE
   LOWER TO MID 70S.  

   19Z RAP SOUNDINGS AND THE 18Z DVN RAOB MODIFIED FOR CURRENT SURFACE
   CONDITIONS OVER SRN IA...RESULT IN LITTLE IF ANY APPRECIABLE
   REMAINING CINH AND UPWARDS OF 1500-3000 J PER KG MLCAPE.  THE KDMX
   VWP SHOWS AROUND 40 KT AT H5 FLOW AND WOULD SUPPORT POTENTIAL STORM
   ORGANIZATION...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS --ONCE STORMS FORM.  DESPITE A
   WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHEARING NEWD ACROSS WI INTO THE UPPER GREAT
   LAKES THIS AFTERNOON...IT APPEARS ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR ASCENT
   INFLUENCING THE REGION NAMELY IN THE FORM OF UPPER ASCENT ASSOCIATED
   WITH A POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST REGION AND THE
   CONCURRENT STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW LEVEL JET THIS EVENING TOWARDS
   THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY AND NRN IL WILL BE NEEDED TO PROMOTE STORM
   DEVELOPMENT.  ONCE THIS OCCURS...A SEVERE THREAT MAINLY IN THE FORM
   OF ISOLD LARGE HAIL...DMGG WINDS...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO WILL
   LIKELY PROMPT A WATCH ISSUANCE.

   ..SMITH/HART.. 07/12/2014


   ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

   LAT...LON   40239725 41129686 42009481 42639235 42239057 41409030
               40789125 40529204 40449472 39969645 40239725 

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Page last modified: July 12, 2014
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