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Mesoscale Discussion 1345
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1345
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0955 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

   Areas affected...northeast South Dakota through southwest Minnesota

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 191455Z - 191700Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Potential exists for small cluster of storms over north
   central ND to intensify and continue through northeast SD and
   southwest MN with damaging wind and large hail the primary threats.
   However, some uncertainty remains regarding this scenario, so ww
   issuance will ultimately depend on convective trends.

   DISCUSSION...Cluster of storms over north central ND is moving east
   southeast at around 35-40 kt. Based on recent observations and both
   model and observed 12Z RAOB data, updrafts are still elevated above
   a stable layer. However, sufficient dry air exists in the lowest 3
   km to support strong to severe downdrafts. The storms are developing
   in response to a southwesterly 35 kt low-level jet that will migrate
   eastward with time in association with a progressive shortwave
   trough. These processes might help to sustain the convection until
   the boundary layer destabilizes sufficiently downstream to support
   surface based storms, and possibly a forward propagating MCS with
   embedded bowing segments and supercells. However, storms scale model
   solutions are dispersive, and some uncertainty remains whether or
   not storms will be able to persist as they transition to surface
   based given the warm elevated mixed layer with 12-14 C temperatures
   at 700 mb.

   ..Dial/Hart.. 07/19/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   44449892 45169860 45639827 45259686 44649554 43749595

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