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Mesoscale Discussion 1346
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1346
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0519 PM CDT THU JUL 09 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN/CNTRL NM

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 092219Z - 092345Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
   MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. HOWEVER...THE
   NATURE OF THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE FAIRLY
   UNORGANIZED...PRECLUDING WW ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MCD AREA HAVE ACQUIRED
   TRANSIENT ROTATION/SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
   THE REGION ON THE EDGE OF A CORE OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT TO THE WEST.
   REGIONAL VWP DATA INDICATE AROUND 25-30 KTS OF 0-6-KM SHEAR IS
   AVAILABLE FOR UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP FOR THE TIME OF YEAR...FAVORABLE
   LOW/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS YIELDING AROUND 500-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE
   PER RECENT MESOANALYSIS. THEREFORE...A FEW CELLS MAY ACQUIRE BRIEF
   ROTATION...ENHANCING THE THREAT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS/MARGINALLY
   SEVERE HAIL. HOWEVER...THE FAIRLY MODEST NATURE OF THE KINEMATIC
   ENVIRONMENT...AS WELL AS THE LACK OF STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES...SUGGEST THE THREAT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY UNORGANIZED.
   THUS...WW ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

   ..PICCA/EDWARDS.. 07/09/2015


   ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...

   LAT...LON   31820684 31810763 31890828 32830870 35210873 35450823
               35570616 35360517 34150498 32350506 32080558 31820684 

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Page last modified: July 09, 2015
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