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Mesoscale Discussion 1346
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1346
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0959 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of northern ND and northwest MN

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 191459Z - 191730Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Some isolated severe-hail risk may accompany convection
   spreading across areas near and just south of the international
   border through the day. Present indications are that Watch issuance
   will be unlikely.

   DISCUSSION...Regenerative convection within a corridor of modest,
   though capped, boundary-layer moisture return through western ND and
   into parts of southern Manitoba will continue to train
   east-southeastward. This activity will affect areas near and south
   of the international border through the day. Multiple, subtle foci
   for large-scale ascent -- accompanying a mid-level speed maximum
   crossing a corridor of elevated buoyancy accompanying the moisture
   return -- will maintain the risk for thunderstorms through the day.
   The 12Z Bismarck sounding indicates a layer of near 9-C/km lapse
   rates in the mid levels, encouraging strong upward accelerations for
   convection rooted atop the stable boundary layer.

   As potentially robust updrafts, associated with marginal to moderate
   elevated buoyancy, interact with 50-60 kt of effective shear --
   developing eastward with time -- the most robust convective cores
   could produce isolated severe hail through the day. However, with
   effective inflow layers rooted above the stable surface layer, and
   given lack of more appreciable moisture return somewhat limiting
   buoyancy, a more substantial severe risk is not anticipated.

   ..Cohen/Coniglio/Hart.. 07/19/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

   LAT...LON   47929658 48039914 48700089 48990044 48999905 48879601
               48509536 48149556 47929658 

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Page last modified: July 19, 2017
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