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Mesoscale Discussion 1347
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1347
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0551 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...N IL...SE IA...FAR NW IND

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 411...

   VALID 122251Z - 130015Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 411 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...WW ISSUANCE IS LIKELY DOWNSTREAM OF WW 411 ACROSS MUCH OF
   NRN IL IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
   HAZARD...BUT ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE
   POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...A PREVIOUSLY INTENSE STORM WITHIN WW 411 OVER CLINTON
   COUNTY IA LIKELY PRODUCED A SEVERE DOWNBURST WITH 49 KT WINDS
   MEASURED AT 2220Z AT THE DEWITT RWIS SITE. DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS HAS
   BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE OVER MUCH OF IL WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
   IN THE 80S AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.
   MID/UPPER-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN MARGINAL...AROUND 6 DEG C/KM
   FROM 700-500 MB PER 18Z DVN RAOB. BUT LOW/MID-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE
   FAVORABLE FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION WITH 0-6 KM VALUES AROUND 40 KT PER
   LOT/DVN VWP DATA. STRENGTHENING OF WINDS IS ANTICIPATED IN RESPONSE
   TO THE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR THE S-CNTRL CANADIAN/N-CNTRL
   CONUS BORDER. SUPERCELLS AND MULTICELL CLUSTERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
   EWD THROUGH THE EVENING CAPABLE OF ALL SEVERE HAZARDS.

   ..GRAMS.. 07/12/2014


   ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...DVN...

   LAT...LON   40279030 40289145 40549187 41389198 41989152 42219057
               42278919 42288788 41968682 41408660 40508694 40318788
               40328847 40258959 40279030 

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Page last modified: July 13, 2014
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