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Mesoscale Discussion 1347
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1347
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0525 PM CDT THU JUL 09 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN PA...NJ...NRN MD/DE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 398...

   VALID 092225Z - 100000Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 398
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...STRONG WIND GUSTS PRIMARILY PRODUCING TREE DAMAGE WILL
   REMAIN PROBABLE AS A SMALL QLCS EVOLVES E FROM WW 397 INTO WW
   398...MAINLY ACROSS SERN PA AND MOST OF NJ INTO NRN MD/DE.

   DISCUSSION...MEASURED WIND GUSTS OF 35-45 KT HAVE BEEN COMMON WITH
   PASSAGE OF THE QLCS ACROSS S-CNTRL PA/N-CNTRL MD...REF
   KMDT/KCXY/KDMW/KLNS METARS. DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS REMAINS RELATIVELY
   WARM /OUTSIDE OF THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREA/...WITH SURFACE
   TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. THIS SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE
   OF CONTINUED DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT OF AROUND 40-45 KT 3-KM AGL
   WLY FLOW /AS SAMPLED BY LWX VWP DATA/. GIVEN THE NEARLY
   PERPENDICULAR NATURE OF MID-LEVEL FLOW TO THE ORIENTATION OF THE
   LINE /ESPECIALLY ACROSS SERN PA/...THE RISK FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS
   MAY BE GREATEST TOWARDS THE PHILADELPHIA AND TRENTON AREAS AROUND
   00Z. 

   NRN PORTION OF WW 398 ACROSS NERN PA MAY STRUGGLE TO REALIZE STRONG
   WINDS GIVEN PREDOMINANT STRATIFORM CHARACTER AND WEAKER INSTABILITY
   WITH NRN EXTENT.

   ..GRAMS.. 07/09/2015


   ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...CTP...LWX...

   LAT...LON   39067480 39107522 39267584 39377633 39577660 40017622
               40757604 40797568 40847558 40617454 40517424 40297398
               39947404 39687413 39427433 39067480 

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Page last modified: July 10, 2015
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