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Mesoscale Discussion 1347
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1347
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1211 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of eastern SD...southern MN...northern IA

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 419...

   Valid 191711Z - 191915Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 419
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A small, organized cluster of thunderstorms producing
   severe wind gusts is expected to continue moving through the
   remaining portions of the Watch through 18z.  A Watch will be needed
   soon into the MN/IA portions of the MCD area.

   DISCUSSION...A cluster of thunderstorms continues moving south and
   east across eastern SD around 50 kt and has been producing severe
   wind gusts, some significant, the last few hours. Latest radar
   trends show indications of a mesoscale convective vortex/bookend
   vortex developing over western Kingsbury County that is likely
   contributing to the uptick in convective intensity/coverage. 
   Although a capping inversion remains across the region, and the main
   lifting associated with the right-entrance region of the upper jet
   streak is lifting farther north away from the east-southeastward
   propagating system, rapid destabilization along/south of the warm
   front amidst low-mid 70s surface dewpoints is ongoing. Moreover, a
   significant cold pool is developing -- a 7-mb pressure jump was
   noted at KHON -- that should allow for continuation and
   intensification of the system in the next few hours.  Given the
   expected movement of the current system into MN by 18z, and the
   potential for new convective development farther east along the warm
   front in IA, a Watch downstream of the current Watch is likely.

   ..Coniglio/Cohen/Hart.. 07/19/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...

   LAT...LON   42889668 43629758 44149743 44519641 44479473 44179310
               43589175 42899194 42599299 42519418 42709571 42889668 

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Page last modified: July 19, 2017
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