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Mesoscale Discussion 1348
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1348
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0604 PM CDT THU JUL 09 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MD/VA...SRN DE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 092304Z - 100030Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...CONVECTION DEVELOPING S OF WW 397 MAY EVENTUALLY ORGANIZE
   ACROSS PARTS OF THE DELMARVA...WHICH COULD REQUIRE AN ADDITIONAL WW
   ISSUANCE AND/OR LOCAL WFO EXTENSIONS OF EXISTING WW/S.

   DISCUSSION...SHOWERS HAVE INCREASED S OF ONGOING TSTMS/QLCS WITHIN
   WW/S 397/398 ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED THROUGH THE DC AREA
   INTO CNTRL VA. RECENT ESRL-HRRR RUNS SUGGEST THIS CONVECTION WILL
   INTENSIFY PRIMARILY OVER THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AREA...INTO PARTS OF THE
   DELMARVA PENINSULA. BUT WITH 2-KM AGL WLYS NEAR 40 KT SAMPLED AS FAR
   S AS FCX/AKQ IN VWP DATA...IT SEEMS PLAUSIBLE THAT CONVECTION COULD
   BECOME ORGANIZED EVEN FARTHER S TOWARDS THE RICHMOND AREA. WITH
   MIDDLE 80S TO LOWER 90S SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S
   DEW POINTS LIKELY YIELDING MODERATE BUOYANCY...FURTHER SWD
   INTENSIFICATION OF CONVECTION WOULD PROBABLY RESULT IN A RISK FOR
   DAMAGING WINDS S OF THE EXISTING WW/S.

   ..GRAMS/EDWARDS.. 07/09/2015


   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...

   LAT...LON   39157668 38917643 38957620 39287607 39257572 38967542
               38777524 38507518 38237528 37567618 37437716 37507766
               37647790 38127759 39157668 

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Page last modified: July 10, 2015
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