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Mesoscale Discussion 1349
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1349
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0610 PM CDT THU JUL 09 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN MO...SRN IL...WRN KY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 092310Z - 100115Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A CLUSTER OF STRONG STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
   EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR A
   FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...WW ISSUANCE IS NOT
   EXPECTED.

   DISCUSSION...A STOUT BOWING SEGMENT WAS PROGRESSING EWD TOWARDS THE
   CONFLUENCE OF THE MS/OH RIVERS AROUND 30 KTS AS OF 23Z. RECENT KPAH
   DATA DEPICT APPROX 50-KT WINDS AROUND 5000 FT AGL WITH THIS LINE.
   ADDITIONALLY...NEW CONVECTION IS INITIATING TO ITS EAST ALONG A
   COMPOSITE WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. SUFFICIENT INSOLATION AND SFC
   DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ARE YIELDING UPWARDS OF 1500-2500
   J/KG OF MLCAPE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE BOWING SEGMENT.
   IN COMBINATION WITH THIS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...AN
   ASSOCIATED MCV IS LIKELY AIDING CONVECTIVE INITIATION TO THE
   EAST...AS WELL AS SUSTENANCE OF THE LINE. AS SUCH...MODESTLY
   ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW AROUND 30-35 KTS SHOULD WORK IN CONCERT WITH
   COLD-POOL AMALGAMATION TO YIELD AT LEAST A MARGINAL WIND THREAT THIS
   EVENING. THE LIMITED SPATIAL NATURE OF THE THREAT SHOULD PRECLUDE WW
   ISSUANCE HOWEVER.

   ..PICCA/EDWARDS.. 07/09/2015


   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...

   LAT...LON   36649057 37559047 37778920 37808762 37218732 36728762
               36538962 36569034 36649057 

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Page last modified: July 10, 2015
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