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Mesoscale Discussion 1349
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1349
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0709 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SE IA...FAR N MO...N IL

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 411...

   VALID 130009Z - 130145Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 411 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...DEVELOPING COLD POOL WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES
   SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE DAMAGING WIND RISK THROUGH 03Z.
   MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND A TORNADO OR TWO WILL REMAIN
   POSSIBLE...WITH DOWNSTREAM WW ISSUANCE STILL LIKELY INTO N IL BY
   LATE EVENING.

   DISCUSSION...SUPERCELL HAS REMAIN PERSISTENT ALONG THE SW IA/NW MO
   BORDER AREA...RIGHT-TURNING OVER WORTH INTO HARRISON COUNTY MO.
   FARTHER NE...AMALGAMATING CELLS INTO MONROE AND WAPELLO COUNTY IA
   HAVE SHOWN INCREASINGLY STRONG OUTBOUND VELOCITIES PER DMX RADAR.
   00Z DVN RAOB SAMPLED MLCAPE AROUND 2500 J/KG WITH MEAN MIXING RATIOS
   NEAR 18 G/KG. WITH STRONG 0-3 KM SHEAR AIDED BY 700 MB WLYS TO NEAR
   40 KT...LEWP/BOWING STRUCTURES SHOULD FORM AS THE COLD POOL
   CONTINUES TO DEEPEN. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASING RISK FOR
   DAMAGING WINDS TOWARDS/ACROSS THE MS RIVER INTO LATE EVENING. 

   RELATIVELY WEAK CONVERGENCE HAS LIKELY LIMITED MORE ROBUST DISCRETE
   CONVECTION FARTHER E INTO IL IN THE NEAR-TERM. BUT AS THE LLJ
   STRENGTHENS THIS EVENING...ADDITIONAL CELLS MAY YET DEVELOP OUT
   AHEAD OF THE IA/MO MCS.

   ..GRAMS.. 07/13/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...

   LAT...LON   41729192 41899069 41928938 41818882 41588851 41198848
               40708883 40319021 40119172 39949437 40249456 40479442
               40889366 41189301 41729192 

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Page last modified: July 13, 2014
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