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Mesoscale Discussion 1350
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1350
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0221 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of southern/eastern SC and southeast GA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 191921Z - 192145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Convection spreading toward the Atlantic Coast through the
   late afternoon and perhaps early evening hours may pose an isolated
   severe risk. Watch issuance will be unlikely.

   DISCUSSION...The air mass continues to become strongly unstable
   ahead of an arc of loosely organized convection over the SC
   Piedmont. This activity will continue to spread across the coastal
   plain and perhaps develop into southeast GA before moving 
   offshore -- having developed in association with a subtle lobe of
   mid-level ascent preceding a minor disturbance on the west side of a
   larger-scale trough. The Charleston SC VAD wind profile indicates
   around 30-40 kt of high-level northerly and north-northwesterly
   flow, supporting sufficient deep shear and convective ventilation
   for semi-organized multicell clusters to be maintained toward the
   Atlantic Coast. Given adequate buoyancy offered by surface
   temperatures having warmed into the upper 80s to lower 90s amid
   dewpoints in the lower/middle 70s, robust convection capable of
   supporting marginally severe wind/hail may occur. However, given
   poor mid-level lapse rates and modest deep shear, a more substantial
   severe risk is not expected.

   ..Cohen/Coniglio/Hart.. 07/19/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...

   LAT...LON   31788131 32068159 32668142 33508064 34178000 34477958
               34027915 33267934 32258037 31788131 

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