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Mesoscale Discussion 1350
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1350
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0909 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...N IL...SE IA/WI

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 411...

   VALID 130209Z - 130315Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 411 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...OVERALL SEVERE RISK MAY REMAIN TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT
   DOWNSTREAM WW ISSUANCE. STILL...ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
   PRIMARY HAZARD...ESPECIALLY WITH A CLUSTER EVOLVING E/SE FROM NW IL.

   DISCUSSION...DESPITE A FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF CAPE/SHEAR...TSTM
   CLUSTERS HAVE STRUGGLED TO YIELD ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS BEYOND
   LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS. THIS IS PROBABLY IN PART DUE TO MARGINAL
   LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 700-500 MB SAMPLED IN 00Z DVN/ILX RAOBS AND
   RELATIVELY WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT. OVERALL STORM INTENSITY
   HAS LARGELY DIMINISHED...EXCEPT FOR A STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE
   CLUSTER OVER STEPHENSON/CARROLL COUNTY IL. AMIDST LARGEST GREATEST
   SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS N IL TO FAR S WI...POTENTIAL WILL
   EXIST FOR THIS CLUSTER TO PRODUCE ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AS IT
   MOVES TOWARD CHICAGOLAND.

   ..GRAMS.. 07/13/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...DMX...

   LAT...LON   40599195 40719221 40849228 41029215 41569078 42268993
               42918868 42898775 42258751 41748740 41438765 40948865
               40558972 40499074 40599195 

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Page last modified: July 13, 2014
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