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Mesoscale Discussion 1351
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1351
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1032 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...S LOWER MI...N IND...FAR NW OH

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 130332Z - 130530Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A RISK FOR LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS AND A BRIEF TORNADO
   MAY DEVELOP E OF WW 412 WITHIN A HIGH-SHEAR/LOW-CAPE ENVIRONMENT.

   DISCUSSION...LARGE-SCALE TREND HAS BEEN FOR WEAKENING OF THE
   REFLECTIVITY GRADIENT WITH AN MCS FROM S LK MI TO N IL.
   STILL...EMBEDDED ROTATIONAL/LEWP SIGNATURES HAVE OCCURRED IN THE
   PAST HOUR AMIDST 35-40 KT 0-1 KM SHEAR AS SAMPLED BY LOT/IWX VWP
   DATA. AS THE STRONG W/SWLY LLJ SHIFTS E OF LK MI...A RISK FOR
   LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS AND A BRIEF TORNADO COULD BE REALIZED
   AMIDST A NEARLY SATURATED THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE. PROGRESSIVELY
   LIMITED INSTABILITY OWING TO POOR LAPSE RATES AND COOLER RESIDUAL
   BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO FARTHER SW WILL PROBABLY
   MITIGATE A MORE ROBUST RISK. STILL...IF OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS APPEAR
   TO SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY...A WW ISSUANCE MAY
   BECOME WARRANTED.

   ..GRAMS/CORFIDI.. 07/13/2014


   ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...

   LAT...LON   43328644 43488485 43418396 42998343 42468349 41598386
               41258424 40998575 41108666 41558677 42898696 43328644 

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Page last modified: July 13, 2014
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