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Mesoscale Discussion 1351
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1351
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0822 PM CDT THU JUL 09 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NRN AR...SRN MO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 100122Z - 100245Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A BAND OF STRONG CONVECTION SHOULD PROGRESS EWD ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF THE OZARKS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A MARGINAL THREAT
   FOR A FEW STRONG GUSTS AND/OR A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO WILL EXIST.
   HOWEVER...THE LIMITED NATURE OF THE THREAT SHOULD PRECLUDE WW
   ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...RECENT RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES A STRONG/MARGINALLY
   SEVERE LINE OF CONVECTION /STRETCHING FROM LACLEDE COUNTY MO TO
   BOONE COUNTY AR/ IS PROGRESSING EWD AROUND 30 KTS. WHILE THESE
   STORMS ARE ENTERING A REGION CHARACTERIZED BY AIR SOMEWHAT
   CONTAMINATED BY EARLIER CONVECTION...THEY ARE LIKELY BEING
   MAINTAINED BY FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM A WEAK IMPULSE ALOFT...AS WELL
   AS AN MCV ACROSS SRN MO. REGIONAL VWPS CONTINUE TO DISPLAY AROUND
   30-40 KTS OF W/SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW...SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW BOWING
   SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF A MARGINALLY SEVERE GUST OR TWO.
   ADDITIONALLY...WHILE NEAR-SFC FLOW IS WEAK...AMPLE LOW-LEVEL
   MOISTURE MAY OFFER THE OPPORTUNITY FOR A BRIEF TORNADO IN ANY
   LINE-EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE
   LINE. HOWEVER...AS THE LINE PROGRESSES EWD THIS EVENING...MODEST BL
   COOLING/INCREASING CINH SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND.
   THEREFORE...WW ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

   ..PICCA/EDWARDS.. 07/10/2015


   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...

   LAT...LON   37619270 37669180 37669070 37309039 36809046 36419071
               36099111 35759213 35689382 36039376 37109310 37619270 

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Page last modified: July 10, 2015
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