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Mesoscale Discussion 1352
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1352
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0246 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of southern MN

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 420...

   Valid 191946Z - 192115Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 420
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The severe wind threat will continue within Watch #0420.

   DISCUSSION...A small bowing convective system continues to move
   across southwestern MN at 40-45 kt.  A strong MCV/northern cyclonic
   bookend vortex appears to have biased the overall system motion
   eastward the last 60-90 minutes, while the southern end of the
   system has not propagated into IA likely because of the northern
   edge of the strong capping inversion there.  The rear inflow
   associated with the cyclonic vortex and expanding stratiform
   precipitation will continue to organize and expand in size the next
   hour or so.  As the surging cold pool interacts with a very moist,
   unstable boundary layer observed to its east-southeast, intense
   convective development is expected to continue, aided by a
   deep-layer vertical wind shear profile very favorable for continued
   convective regeneration. Given the increasing influence of the
   rear-inflow, a general east-southeast motion is expected to resume
   in the next hour.

   ..Coniglio/Cohen.. 07/19/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...

   LAT...LON   44409498 44439440 44369344 44249310 44009299 43699302
               43439313 43439358 43499402 43539464 43609505 43789528
               44169514 44409498 

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Page last modified: July 19, 2017
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