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Mesoscale Discussion 1352
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1352
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1144 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...N IL

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 412...

   VALID 130444Z - 130515Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 412 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...SEVERE RISK HAS BECOME QUITE MARGINAL WITHIN MUCH OF WW
   412...AND WW MAY BE LOCALLY CANCELLED PRIOR TO 06Z SCHEDULED
   EXPIRATION.

   DISCUSSION...DECAYED MCS HAS EVOLVED INTO LARGELY STRATIFORM RAIN
   ACROSS MOST OF N IL. TSTM REDEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED BEHIND THE
   SURFACE FRONT ALONG THE MO/IA BORDER INTO NW IL. GIVEN VEERED
   SURFACE/LOW-LEVEL WINDS IN AREA VWP DATA...IT APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT
   THIS ACTIVITY WOULD INTENSIFY TO AN ORGANIZED SEVERE RISK /BEYOND A
   LOCALIZED DOWNBURST/ WITHIN A PROBABLE MOIST-ADIABATIC THERMODYNAMIC
   ENVIRONMENT.

   ..GRAMS.. 07/13/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...

   LAT...LON   41708818 41588752 41268776 40928883 40948912 41598909
               41698884 41708818 

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Page last modified: July 13, 2014
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