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Mesoscale Discussion 1352
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1352
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0909 PM CDT THU JUL 09 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE OK/TX PANHANDLES...AND FAR SWRN
   KS/SERN CO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 399...

   VALID 100209Z - 100345Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 399
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS WW
   399...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREATS.
   CONVECTION SHOULD SLOWLY PROGRESS N/EWD ACROSS THE WATCH THROUGH THE
   REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. ADDITIONALLY...A FEW STRONG/MARGINALLY
   SEVERE CELLS HAVE PROGRESSED/DEVELOPED JUST NORTH OF THE WATCH
   ACROSS SERN CO/SWRN KS. HOWEVER...THE SMALL SPATIAL SCALE OF THE
   THREAT PRECLUDES WATCH ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION HAVE
   OVERSPREAD THE WATCH THIS EVENING...WITH THE TWO PRIMARY AREAS OVER
   THE OK PANHANDLE/FAR NRN TX PANHANDLE AND PORTIONS OF THE WRN LUB
   CWA. THE 00Z AMA RAOB SAMPLED MLCAPE OF AROUND 1600 J/KG. WHILE
   LOW-MID-LEVEL FLOW IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
   /IN COMBINATION WITH ADEQUATE BUOYANCY IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE/
   APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION AND SUBSEQUENT LARGE-HAIL
   GROWTH IN CELLS THAT CAN REMAIN AT LEAST SEMI-DISCRETE.
   INDEED...1.75-IN HAIL WAS REPORTED IN CIMARRON COUNTY OK AT 0120Z.
   ADDITIONALLY...UPPER-LEVEL FLOW OF 70-80 KTS NEAR THE EQUILIBRIUM
   LEVEL SHOULD SUPPLY VENTING FOR MORE VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS. AS
   SUCH...THE SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS WW 399.

   A FEW STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE CELLS HAVE DEVELOPED JUST NORTH OF
   THE WATCH AS WELL...AS STRONG OUTFLOW HAS FAVORED NWD PROPAGATION
   HERE. HOWEVER...DECREASING THETA-E TO THE NORTH OF THE CURRENT WATCH
   SHOULD LIMIT THE SPATIAL EXTENT OF ANY LARGE HAIL/STRONG WIND THREAT
   HERE...AND NEW WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED.

   ..PICCA.. 07/10/2015


   ATTN...WFO...DDC...LUB...AMA...PUB...

   LAT...LON   33420266 33500298 37580292 37720178 37640077 36870071
               33830057 33470073 33420187 33420266 

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Page last modified: July 10, 2015
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